National Weather Service expecting dry, warm winter in Arizona

PHOENIX — While Arizona moved into fall on Friday, the National Weather Service said residents of the Grand Canyon State should expect a dry, warm winter.

Meteorologist Mark O’Malley said the temperatures and precipitation will hinge on one major factor: The La Nina weather pattern.

“A weak La Nina doesn’t really mean much for us and, unfortunately this year, if we do get the moderate La Nina, the odds are tilted toward the drier-than-average [winter],” he said.

Though Friday — the first day of fall — was too early to make a detailed forecast for the Arizona winter, the looming La Nina does not bode well for another snowy winter.

“It’s not clear how strong this La Nina could get,” O’Malley said. “If we start getting into the moderate La Nina, that’s probably not a good sign for our winter time rain and snow across the state.”

The La Nina pattern surfaces about every four years.

If things do stay dry, it would be a far cry from last winter. Arizona — especially the state’s high country — was pounded all season long with precipitation.

Northern Arizona received so much snow that Arizona Snowbowl, located near Flagstaff, stayed open until the first weekend of May. It was the first time it remained open that long.

All of the precipitation helped to relieve drought conditions across the state.

KTAR News’ Jim Cross contributed to this report.

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