El Nino expected to bring more rain than usual to Arizona winter
Dec 31, 2015, 8:37 AM
(Unsplash.com Photo)
(Unsplash.com Photo)
PHOENIX — Prepare for an atypical winter in Arizona.
El Nino’s far reach could bring a wetter, warmer winter than usual to the state.
The warming of the Pacific Ocean helps fuel El Nino, which last hit Arizona in a major way in 1997-98. Damage globally was in the billions of dollars. Meteorologist Rob Carlmark with ABC 10 in Sacramento, California is an expert on El Nino and has been keeping a close eye on this for months.
“This is textbook on how it usually comes together,” Carlmark said. “The really strong jet stream helps sustain really strong storms starts to sag to the south and usually takes aim at California and Arizona.
“This is the exact timing that we were seeing months out.”
New outlook for next week has an 80% chance of above average precip. Wet pattern is coming… #azwx #cawx pic.twitter.com/74TWGBNA0L
— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) December 30, 2015
But Carlmark said this could be the most powerful El Nino on record.
“The weekly temperatures in the El Nino region waters are much higher than 1997 and it’s been above that level for two months. I think we’re going to end up seeing the strongest El Nino ever going back to 1950 and possibly back to the 1800’s.”
This doesn’t mean Arizona will see day after day of wet weather from now until about April.
“Even during strong El Ninos we’ve had dry periods of three weeks. But it’s when the pattern sets up with huge Pacific lows tapping into super juicy air to the south.
We just saw something like that move through the Midwest with record flooding in the middle of winter, which has simply never happened before.
“That gives you an idea that if we tap into that kind of moisture and shift it over to the west coast, we could be looking at something like that.”
Carlmark said for as much as the weather experts know about El Nino, there was a lot of wiggle room because Arizona has only been in this spot twice — 1950 and in 1997-98.
“As an example, absolutely nobody called for the record rainfall in the Pacific Northwest in December. That’s something we’ve never seen before with a super El Nino.”
Homeowners who live in areas that can typically get hit hard with El Nino storms should think about getting flood insurance.
