Poll: Salmon exit helps Taylor Robson, but Lake still leads Arizona GOP governor race

PHOENIX – Karrin Taylor Robson picked up ground in Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary race after Matt Salmon withdrew last week, but Kari Lake is still leading, according to new polling.

“With Salmon dropping out of the race, it showed that about 80% of his votes went to Robson, with about 20% going to Lake,” OH Predictive Insights chief of research Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Wednesday, after the Phoenix-based research firm published its latest findings.

“So, it really helped boost up Robson and keep her competitive in this contest.”

But because Salmon’s support had dwindled to 6%, Lake remained the front-runner, a role she’s held since the early days of the campaign.

As mail-in ballots begin sending out later in the week, NEW likely AZ GOP primary voter data reveals the current state of the Governor's Race in AZ:

AZ GOP Gov Primary: With Salmon Out, Lake & Robson Battle for Nomination – https://t.co/cs4t7bdpOm

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) July 6, 2022

Lake’s lead over Taylor Robson is now 5 points, 40%-35%, according to OH Predictive Insights’ post-Salmon poll. Lake’s advantage was 8 points, 39%-31%, before Salmon withdrew on June 28 and endorsed Taylor Robson a day later.

Early voting for the Aug. 2 primary started Wednesday, when the first voting centers opened and mail ballots were sent out.

“It’s a two-way race right now. … I think it’s going to be a close race,” Noble said. “I don’t think either one is going to blow the other one out of the water.”

The latest poll, which was conducted June 30-July 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%, shows 21% of likely GOP voters still unsure.

Noble said more voters have formed an opinion about Lake than Taylor Robson, which leaves Taylor Robson with more opportunities to add support.

“Basically, Lake’s at her top of support — so she’s kind of maxed out of where she can be, she can’t really grow anymore — where Robson has an opportunity to grow,” he said.

“The only thing is that the clock is ticking, with early voting beginning this week.”

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