New poll shows tight Republican primary races for Arizona secretary of state, attorney general

PHOENIX – New polling conducted five months ahead of Arizona’s 2026 primary elections shows several tight Republican races for statewide offices — and plenty of undecided voters.

Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) conducted the survey for six down-ballot races Feb. 23-26 and released findings Wednesday that show more than 60% of voters as undecided in five of the contests and no candidates anywhere near the important 50% mark.

Early voting for this year’s midterm primaries starts June 24, and Election Day is July 21.

“These numbers reflect early-cycle dynamics,” NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble said in a press release. “Voters simply aren’t tuned into these races yet. But that also means campaigns have plenty of opportunity. Definition — positive or negative — will matter immensely.”

NPI noted that older voters, a bloc more likely to participate in primaries, are disproportionately undecided.

Who leads GOP primary election races for secretary of state, attorney general?

Two of the top Republican races — secretary of state and attorney general — have slim 1-point margins between the leading candidates. NPI didn’t poll Democrats for those offices because incumbents from that party are seeking reelection.

In the GOP secretary of state poll, state Rep. Alexander Kolodin stood at 17% and former Arizona Republican Party Chair Gina Swoboda had 16%, with 67% of respondents saying they aren’t sure who they will select.

The undecided percentage was also 67% for the attorney general survey, which showed Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen with 13%, Phoenix attorney and repeat candidate Rodney Glassman at 12% and Scottsdale attorney Greg Roeberg at 8%.

“The attorney general race mirrors the secretary of state contest — high uncertainty and no dominant candidate,” Noble noted. “With voters still shopping, this is a race that could shift dramatically once campaigns begin communicating at scale.”

What about Arizona Corporation Commission, school superintendent races?

The polling showed larger margins in the superintendent of public instruction primaries.

On the Republican side, where name recognition is higher than in the other races surveyed, incumbent Tom Horne held a 31% to 25% advantage over current Treasurer Kimberly Yee, while 44% of respondents were undecided. (Note: NPI did not include state treasurer in its polling.)

Among Democrats, former Glendale Community College President Teresa Leyba Ruiz has a comfortable 31% to 8% lead over former teacher and school administrator Michael Butts, with 62% undecided.

NPI also asked registered Democratic and Republican voters about candidates for spots on the Arizona Corporation Commission. Respondents could select up to two for each party.

Clara Pratte leads the Democratic race with 20%, followed by Jonathan Hill at 18% and Derrick Espadas at 14%, with 65% undecided. Meanwhile, the Republican poll came out at 16% for Kevin Thompson, 13% for David Marshall, 12% for Nick Myers, 9% for Ralph Heap and a whopping 69% undecided.

NPI released recent polling on the 2026 Arizona governor race last week. It showed U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs ahead of U.S. Rep. David Schweikert in the Republican primary race, but incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leading both of them in hypothetical general election matchups.

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