Ruben Gallego maintains big lead over Kari Lake in race for Arizona US Senate seat, poll says

PHOENIX — The race in Arizona to replace Kyrsten Sinema in the U.S. Senate continues to favor Ruben Gallego over Kari Lake, according to a poll released Thursday.

Gallego, the congressman and presumed Democratic nominee, leads Lake by 10 percentage points — 46% to 36% — in the poll by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

NPI’s last poll, released in February, also had Gallego with a 10-percentage-point lead over Lake. That poll was conducted before Sinema announced she would not seek reelection.

Why is Ruben Gallego leading Kari Lake in polling for US Senate?

NPI CEO Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM that Gallego has a better standing with Democrats than Lake does with Republicans at this point.

The poll found that 84% of Democrats would pick Gallego, while 71% of Republicans would vote for Lake. Conversely, 15% of Republicans said they’d vote for Gallego with only 7% of Democrats electing for Lake as their choice.

“Democrats are very much united around Ruben,” Noble said. “There’s not a lot of crossover vote there and there’s not many undecided but among Lake’s space, Republicans are getting almost double the amount of crossover vote that Ruben’s showing.”

Gallego continues to lead with independents, leading Lake 42% to 26%. NPI’s February poll had Gallego up 45% to 27%.

“Ruben Gallego’s lead in the general election, especially among independents, highlights the challenges Lake would face in a broader contest,” Noble said.

Could Kari Lake be beaten in the Republican primary?

Lake is still the likely Republican nominee, but her support among her party for the primary has been decreasing.

February’s poll had Lake with 54% GOP support, which has since dropped to 46%, according to Thursday’s poll.

Lake’s challenger, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, has maintained 21% support among Republicans.

Arizona’s primary election is slated for July 30.

“It’s not that Mark Lamb is unpopular among Republicans, they just prefer Lake as their nominee for now,” Noble said. “Being liked is half the battle and Lamb has the edge over Lake there. He just needs to change up his strategy to make a good enough case for himself.”

How was the U.S. Senate poll conducted?

The online opt-in survey panel was conducted May 7-14 from a statewide registered voter sample.

The size was 1,003 registered voters with a margin of error of 3%.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jim Cross contributed to this report.

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