Maricopa County poll shows tight races for sheriff, recorder, county attorney, assessor

PHOENIX – Democratic candidates are faring well among metro Phoenix independents, according to Maricopa County poll results released Wednesday, but the bottom line shows four high-profile races up for grabs with two months to go until the election.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) survey is that over 20% of voters remain undecided in the countywide races for sheriff, recorder, county attorney and assessor.

NPI conducted the survey of 595 registered voters in the state’s largest county Aug. 12-16. The Maricopa County poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.02%, the Phoenix-based research firm said.

“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds … this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner,” Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, said in a press release.

Maricopa County sheriff: Race is tied

The tightest race at this point is for sheriff, where Democrat Tyler Kamp and Republican Jerry Sheridan are deadlocked at 35%, with 24% undecided and 5% planning to abstain, according to the Maricopa County poll.

However, Kamp, who defeated incumbent Sheriff Russ Skinner in the primary, is leading among independents by a 34%-22% margin.

Skinner was appointed to the seat after Paul Penzone stepped down with a year left in his second term. Sheridan was the Republican nominee in 2020, when he lost to Penzone by more than 10 percentage points.

Democrat has 4-point lead in recorder race

The largest margin in the new Maricopa County poll was in the race for recorder. Democrat Tim Stringham was up on Republican Justin Heap 38%-34%, with 22% undecided and 6% abstaining. Stringham is leading among independents 35%-20%.

Heap ousted incumbent Stephen Richer in the primary. Richer was popular among independents and a significant number of Democrats, but the county’s GOP base lost faith in him during his only term in office.

What does new Maricopa County poll say about other races?

Polling in the two other races surveyed provided mixed results, although the differences in both cases were within the margin of error.

In the county attorney race, Republican incumbent Rachel Mitchell was leading Democrat Tamika Wooten 37%-35%, with 21% undecided and 7% abstaining. However, independents went for Wooten 33%-23%.

In the assessor contest, Democratic challenger Gregory Freeman had a 36%-33% advantage over Republican incumbent Eddie Cook, with 26% undecided and 5% abstaining. Independents leaned toward Freeman 33%-18%.

NPI also asked voters about Proposition 479, which would extend a half-cent sales tax to fund regional transportation projects for another 20 years.

The results were similar to previous NPI polling on the issue, with 64% in favor of extending the tax, which is set to expire at the end of 2025, and 18% against it.

“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition. Campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” Noble said.

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