Poll shows Kari Lake in strong position to win Arizona GOP Senate primary
Jul 29, 2024, 12:30 PM | Updated: 12:45 pm
Kari Lake is seen visiting the border with Pinal County Sheriff, with Blake Masters behind them, while she was running for governor in 2022. Lake is expected to beat Lamb to win the 2024 Arizona Republican Senate primary. (Getty Images File Photo)
(Getty Images File Photo)
PHOENIX – New polling shows Kari Lake in a strong position to win Tuesday’s Arizona Republican U.S. Senate primary against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
A survey conducted by Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) last week (July 22-23) showed Lake with a double-digit lead among likely Republican primary voters.
“Lake is, though, sitting at the coveted 50% threshold if the election were held today, and Lamb only at 38%,” NPI CEO Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM after the findings were released Monday morning.
A third candidate, Elizabeth Reye, was polling at just 3%, while 9% were still undecided.
Why is Kari Lake favored to win Senate primary against Mark Lamb?
For the respondents who already voted, Lake’s lead over Lamb wasn’t as wide, at 45%-39%. However, she led 56%-45% among voters who hadn’t yet cast their ballots.
RELATED STORIES
Lake’s lead is even bigger among voters who hold a very favorable opinion of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, at 57%-36%.
Lamb picked up ground since May, when NPI polling showed Lake leading 46%-21%, but it appears he won’t be able to close the gap completely.
The GOP Senate nominee will face U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, the only Democrat running, in the November general election. The seat currently held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema could end up determining which party controls the Senate.
How does Lake stack up against Ruben Gallego?
NPI polling from May showed Gallego with a 10-point lead in a potential matchup against Lake. Gallego led 42%-26% among independent voters, although 32% of that key bloc was undecided.
However, Gallego’s lead according to the RealClearPolitics poll average was just 3.4 percentage points as of Monday morning.
Lake, a former local TV news anchor, fell short in her previous attempt to win a statewide election. She was the Republican nominee for governor in 2022 but lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jim Cross contributed to this report.
Programming note: KTAR News will provide live coverage and analysis of the 2024 primary election results, with special shows from noon to 2 p.m. and 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday and noon to 2 p.m. Wednesday.
