Donald Trump leads in Arizona as Joe Biden support wanes, poll says

PHOENIX — Donald Trump is garnering more support in Arizona than Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 presidential election, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The poll from Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) has Trump at 44% and Biden at 41%, with 15% of likely voters undecided.

NPI founder Mike Noble said Trump’s lead has less to do with the former president and more to do with Biden not recouping the same level of support he did in 2020.

“In 2020, Biden argued that he would be a return to normalcy president, restoring competence and confidence to a nation in the throes of a pandemic and bitter partisan fighting,” Noble said. “Biden’s problem? COVID-19 has gone but normalcy isn’t back.

“Americans are worried about inflation and immigration and as a result, he’s lost ground in key swing states like Arizona.”

A pair of national websites that track polls and publish updates averages — FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics — have Trump with about a 4% lead over Biden.

What impact will third-party candidates have in presidential race in Arizona in 2024?

NPI also asked likely voters who they’d choose if third-party candidates were included.

Trump’s lead jumped to seven percentage points — 43% to Biden’s 36% — with several third-party candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, on the ballot.

Kennedy’s support is at 10% in Arizona, according to the poll.

“Democrats aren’t excited about another Biden candidacy and RFK Jr.’s high support proves a chunk of Democrats, Independents and young voters are willing to leave Biden for RFK Jr.,” Noble said. “The 2024 election will turn, in part, on whether he can get those voters back.”

How was the Arizona presidential poll conducted?

The online opt-in survey panel was conducted from May 7-14 from a statewide registered voter sample.

The size was 1,003 registered voters with a margin of error of 3%.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jim Cross contributed to this report.

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