Arizona’s COVID-19 death toll could top 18,000 in May with current restrictions
Jan 28, 2021, 4:55 AM
(Neil Hall/Pool via AP, File)
(Neil Hall/Pool via AP, File)
PHOENIX — If current trends hold, Arizona could surpass 18,500 coronavirus deaths in May, and it could be more than that.
“The death total could reach 22,200 by May if there is any easing of current restrictions and mandates during that time,” said Dr. Majorie Bessel, chief clinical officer at Banner Health.
She cited the latest forecast from University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Dr. Bessel says it doesn’t account for more COVID-19 vaccines achieving FDA approval and entering the state, but they’re slow to arrive anyway.
She told news reporters in a video news conference Wednesday that coronavirus deaths are usually lagging indicators of viral transmission, but that’s changing.
“We typically see a rise in cases first, then a rise in hospitalizations, then a rise in ICU admissions, and ultimately, those going onto ventilators,” Dr. Bessel explained.
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Now, more people are dying before any of that. She also says hospitals statewide are still feeling the after-effects of the winter infection surge.
“We will experience many more weeks of high hospitalization volumes as we descend from the surge,” Dr. Bessel said. “That will likely take us another 2-3 months to fully recover from.”
Dr. Bessel says this is no time to stop wearing masks and to keep physical distance. She recommends thicker masks with no exhalation valves.
However, Dr. Simone Wildes, ABC News infectious disease expert, tells KTAR News 92.3 FM double masks or thicker masks could produce breathing problems.
