Upper Basin on verge of first-ever Colorado River Compact breach, CAP president warns

The Upper Basin is on the verge of violating the Colorado River Compact for the first time in the agreement’s 104-year history, failing to send enough water downstream to the Lower Basin, Central Arizona Project President Terry Goddard told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday.

The Central Arizona Project, or CAP, delivers Colorado River water to nearly 6 million customers throughout Arizona.

Goddard said the new framework from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation that will guide operations through 2036 could make it worse.

“We have a violation of the compact either today or within the next month,” Goddard said.

The compact requires the Upper Basin to deliver 75 million acre-feet to the Lower Basin over any rolling 10-year period, averaging 7.5 million acre-feet a year.

Goddard said the Upper Basin is falling short of that obligation for the first time in the compact’s history, releasing only 6 million acre-feet this year and running right at the 10-year threshold.

“This year is the first year in history they’re not doing that,” Goddard said.

In shortage years like this one, Goddard said the Upper Basin should provide the Lower Basin a credit for water it cannot deliver. He said the new framework fails to recognize that obligation — and fails to protect the legal rights of the Lower Basin, particularly Arizona’s.

“And because it doesn’t recognize it, they’re setting us up for failure,” Goddard said.

Impacts of Arizona’s cuts

Arizona has been preparing for Colorado River water cuts for years.

The state faces 760,000 acre-feet in annual cuts over the next two years, most of which will come from CAP. About 20% of the reductions will be applied to CAP’s municipal customers.

Those cuts didn’t start from zero. In 2022, CAP lost 512,000 acre-feet when the river entered a Tier 1 shortage, forcing it to stop delivering water to farmers in Pinal County. The current figure represents roughly 250,000 additional acre-feet on top of that.

“Back in 2022, we reduced the water supply in CAP by 512,000 acre-feet. So, the 760,000 represents another approximately 250,000 acre-feet,” Goddard said.

He said the cuts will be painful but manageable.

However, if deeper cuts are issued by the federal government midyear like the new agreement allows, it would be detrimental for Arizona, as the Bureau of Reclamation has already imposed the maximum amount of cuts on the Lower Basin.

Lawsuit possible after Nevada sues first

Nevada filed a lawsuit Monday, arguing the agreement placed the burden of the shortages on the Lower Basin, which could negatively impact its economy.

At an Arizona Reconsultation Committee meeting Monday, Goddard said there are many parallels between Nevada’s lawsuit and Arizona’s position.

“I don’t understand why [the Department of the] Interior has taken this preference, this overwhelming preference for the Upper Basin,” Goddard said.

He said it’s possible Arizona joins Nevada’s lawsuit or files one of its own.

Related

Rep. Juan Ciscomani blames Arizona Democrats for fumbling Colorado River negotiationsCanyon Lake to close on Sept. 8 for months to complete safety inspections, maintenanceArizona keeps legal options on the table after feds order historic Colorado River cutsArizona absorbs bulk of historic Colorado River cuts as Upper Basin states face noneAfter recent water utility hacks, how secure is Arizona?Lake Powell hits record low, threatening key water and electricity supply for millions