New Arizona poll shows Democrats leading every statewide race

Democrats lead every statewide race in Arizona three weeks before Election Day, largely because Republican voters aren’t backing their own party’s candidates, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

A new HighGround Public Affairs survey of 400 likely voters found Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs 50.5% to 33.7%.

Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes leads state Senate President Warren Petersen by 15 percentage points, and Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads state Rep. Alexander Kolodin by nearly 12 percentage points. In the races for open seats, Democrat Nick Mansour leads Republican Elijah Norton by 9 points for treasurer, and Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz leads state Treasurer Kimberly Yee by 6 points for superintendent of public instruction.

Why Republicans are trailing in the Arizona poll

Republican candidates are winning just 68% to 75% of Republican voters. Biggs has 70.6% support among Republicans. At a similar point in 2024, Donald Trump had 88% Republican support in HighGround’s polling, and he ultimately won 93% of Arizona Republicans, according to exit polling.

“There’s a built-in Republican advantage in the state, and right now those candidates are not taking advantage of it,” Paul Bentz, HighGround’s senior vice president of research and strategy, told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

The poll assumes Republicans will make up 8 percentage points more of the electorate than Democrats, which is typical for an Arizona midterm. Democrats lead anyway, helped by independents, who favor Hobbs 58% to 20.5%.

Hobbs also leads by more than 10 points among voters ages 50 to 64, a group Trump won by 22 points in 2024.

Bentz said Republican campaigns appear to see the problem, pointing to Trump’s rally Wednesday in Bullhead City, a GOP stronghold.

“I think they’re trying to run up the score, get Republicans to show up,” he said.

Bentz said races usually tighten closer to Election Day, and some Republicans may not be telling pollsters how they really plan to vote.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Early ballots are already in voters’ mailboxes. Election Day is Nov. 3.

KTAR News 92.3 FM reporter Balin Overstolz-McNair contributed to this report.

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