New poll shows Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs with slim head-to-head leads over top 2 GOP hopefuls

PHOENIX – Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holds head-to-head leads over the top two candidates for the Republican nomination, according to poll findings released Thursday.

However, the incumbent’s edge over Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs is within the margin of error, and a large chunk of voters remain undecided, according Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) findings.

The Arizona governor’s race polling, which was conducted May 12-16, also showed Taylor Robson leading Biggs in the GOP race by 7 percentage points, 24%-17%.

However, the survey included two potential Republican candidates who have since made it clear they won’t be running for governor: Conservative activist Charlie Kirk and Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee.

Recent changes in Arizona governor’s race not reflected in poll

Kirk’s name had been floated as a possible candidate, but the Turning Point USA founder endorsed Biggs on May 16. Yee, meanwhile, who considered a gubernatorial run in 2022 before winning reelection as treasurer, announced Wednesday she is running for superintendent of public instruction next year.

Kirk matched Biggs with 17% in NPI’s poll of registered Republicans, while Yee drew 6%. Over a third of those surveyed, 37%, were undecided with over a year to go until the 2026 primary.

“The moment Kirk stepped out and backed Biggs, the math changed,” David Byler, NPI chief of research, said in a press release. “Biggs now has the opportunity to inherit a young, digital-savvy base that Kirk built, which could be decisive.”

President Donald Trump has endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs.

What do potential general election matchups look like?

Looking ahead to potential general election matchups, the polling showed Hobbs up by 2 percentage points on either Taylor Robson or Biggs, with 17% undecided in each scenario.

The margin of error for the survey of registered Arizona voters is plus or minus 3.06%.

“Katie Hobbs has a foundation, but not a fortress,” Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO, said in the release. “With Republicans energized and the Trump factor still strong, this is shaping up to be a close and unpredictable race this early on.”

Related

Arizona Treasurer Kimberly Yee sets sights on education office held by Tom HorneCharlie Kirk for Arizona governor? Here's what a new poll says about his chancesAnother dual endorsement: Donald Trump says Andy Biggs has his support in gubernatorial runLive updates for Arizona’s 2026 midterm primaries: County website glitchArizona voters to choose Republican and Democratic nominees for top education positionAndy Biggs, David Schweikert offer competing visions for Republican Party in Arizona primary