New poll on Arizona governor’s race shows 10-point gap in Republican primary

PHOENIX – New Republican primary polling shows Karrin Taylor Robson increasing her lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs in the Arizona governor’s race.

However, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs still has a slight advantage in potential head-to-head matchups with either GOP hopeful, according to Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) findings released Thursday.

Polling conducted Aug. 11-18 showed Taylor Robson as the top choice for 37% of registered Republicans. Biggs was at 27%, but 36% remained undecided with under a year to go until the August 2026 primary elections.

“Robson may have the early edge, but Arizona primaries are never won in the opening rounds,” Mike Noble, NPI CEO and founder, said in a press release. “Biggs isn’t going anywhere, and this matchup is on track to be a slugfest between two heavyweights all the way to the finish.”

What did last Arizona governor’s race poll say?

NPI polling in May showed Taylor Robson with a 24%-17% lead over Biggs, although that survey included two potential candidates who have since confirmed they won’t be running for the state’s executive office: activist Charlie Kirk and state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.

Taylor Robson told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Friday she’s feeling the support as she campaigns across the state.

“The momentum comes from people showing up at the events that I’m doing, and I’m just getting started,” she said. “It’s a big state, and we’re going to go to every corner of the state and listen to people, and I’m going to share my message and why we need to get our state back on track.”

This is Taylor Robson’s second run for Arizona governor. She lost to Trump-endorsed Kari Lake in the 2022 primary after entering the race as a relatively unknown housing developer and Arizona Board of Regents member.

President Donald Trump has endorsed both Taylor Robson and Biggs this time around. And to this point, Taylor Robson is outperforming Biggs among Republicans who consider themselves “Trump first” (33%-29%) as well as those who identify as “party first” (42% to 28%), according to the latest polling.

“Robson is playing a very different game than last cycle,” Noble said. “She’s running ads touting Trump’s endorsement while also solidifying support among more traditional Republicans. That combination is giving her an early edge.”

What does Arizona governor’s race poll say about general election?

It’s too soon to tell how that strategy might fare in the general election. But the new NPI polling shows Hobbs leading Taylor Robson and Biggs each by 2 percentage points in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

Hobbs’ advantage is within the margin of error and is the same as it was in May.

“Arizona general elections consistently come down to a razor-thin slice of voters,” Noble said. “Robson may be better positioned to keep Republicans unified and remain competitive with independents, while Biggs risks alienating key segments of the broader electorate that Republicans will need to win statewide.”

Taylor Robson is confident the tide will turn in Republicans’ favor before the November 2026 general election.

“I just I think when the voters focus in on the general election, Katie Hobbs is going to have to defend a record that’s been disastrous,” she said.

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