New analysis shows how independents helped Trump win swing states like Arizona

PHOENIX — A new analysis of voting patterns found that independents in battleground states like Arizona helped turn the 2024 presidential election in Donald Trump’s favor.

The Arizona State University Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy (CISD) conducted the study along with Independent Voting. It was based on exit polling done by Edison Research/National Election Polls via Reuters.

Thom Reilly, a professor at ASU’s School of Public Affairs and CISD co-director, said the analysis raised a lot of issues that future presidential campaigns need to address to be successful in swing states.

“Parties using their traditional campaigns of just going after Republicans and Democrats isn’t going to cut it states like Arizona,” Reilly told KTAR News 92.3 FM last week. “You’re going to have to pay attention to this growing block of individuals that are shunning parties.”

What did analysis find about how independents voted in 2024?

One of the key findings is that voters who identified themselves to pollsters as independents behaved differently in swing states than they did nationally.

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris fared better than Trump among that cohort nationwide, but the Republican had the advantage in five battleground states, including Arizona.

“That’s kind of interesting to look at. … Why did we see that difference?” Reilly said.

Both campaigns clearly focused their efforts on the battleground states, which makes the question difficult to answer, Reilly said.

Another finding sheds some light on how Democrats won Senate races in five swing states that went for Trump, including Arizona.

Reilly said voters who identified as Republicans or Democrats rarely split their votes at the top of the ballot.

“It was independents,” he said. “I mean, upwards of 14% in Nevada of independents actually split their tickets between the president and the Senate candidate.”

The figure was about 10% in Arizona, where Democratic Ruben Gallego beat Kari Lake despite Trump’s solid victory over Harris, Reilly said.

Ticket splitting may be hard to understand, Reilly said, but it’s something future campaigns need to reckon with as more voters identify themselves as independents.

“How would you vote for an abortion ballot [measure] and then vote for Trump? … How would you vote for Trump and then vote for Gallego?” he said. “Well, independents did, and for whatever reasons they made decisions based upon candidates and issues that defied party politics.”

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Heidi Hommel contributed to this report.

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