Arizona voters poll shows tight party-lines margin in governor’s race

PHOENIX – A new poll of Arizona voters found a narrow margin in their political preference for the 2022 governor’s race, putting independents and undecideds squarely in the driver’s seat.

Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights’ survey released Tuesday showed 39% of Republicans backing whomever becomes their primary candidate for the 2022 election, while 36% of Democrats said they would support their primary candidate.

A quarter of the 882 polled were unsure.

“In the ramp-up to the governor’s race, the leading Republican and Democratic candidates’ first hurdle is to cross the 50% threshold and hold that support until next November,” Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research said.

“However, with such a split in voters’ preference for a Republican or Democratic candidate, winning over Arizona’s fast-growing independents will be key to securing the majority vote for governor.”

Of the participants, 35% were Republican, 33% independents and 32% Democratic.

Former TV news anchor Kari Lake led Republican candidates at 25%; former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon was a distant second with 9%. State Treasurer Kimberly Yee was third with 6% while 53% said they were unsure.

Secretary of State Katie Hobbs led the Democratic candidates with 40%. Marco Lopez, former mayor of Nogales, followed with 10% while former state Rep. Aaron Lieberman had 8% and 42% said they were unsure.

The poll was conducted Sept. 7-12 and had a 3.3% margin of error.

Participants were mainly from Maricopa County, the state’s most populous, at 61%. More women than men answered the survey, 51%-49%, and 28% were 65 or older.

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