Poll shows Katie Hobbs up 15 points over Andy Biggs as independents, women break for governor

Gov. Katie Hobbs has opened a 15-point lead over Republican challenger Andy Biggs in the Arizona governor’s race, according to a new HighGround Public Affairs survey.

The poll, released Monday, shows Hobbs leading 49.5% to 34.3% among likely voters. She carries independent voters 54.5% to 19.3% and women 56.7% to 28.8%.

Meanwhile, roughly 14% of Republican respondents remained undecided and nearly 12% said they would vote for Hobbs, leaving Biggs with just 70% of the GOP vote.

The findings are consistent with a Noble Predictive Insights poll released last week that put Hobbs ahead 48% to 35%. That survey found Hobbs had locked up 86% of Democrats while Biggs had secured only 75% of Republicans.

Since May, Hobbs has gained 5 points among registered voters while Biggs has lost the same amount.

Poll shows Andy Biggs faces a two-front battle

Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research and strategy at HighGround, said the Republican base has not yet come home for Biggs.

“At the end of the day, we expect that Republicans will find their way into the Biggs camp, which will make the margin much closer,” Bentz said in the poll report. “However, right now, Biggs is being forced to fight a two-front battle — trying to solidify his Republican base while also trying to earn crossover support from independents. These two things run the risk of being at odds with each other.”

Chuck Coughlin, president and CEO of HighGround, compared the environment to a previous wave election.

“The apparent lack of Republican enthusiasm coupled with independent voters’ anger over affordability, immigration reform policies and the war in Iran may be creating a toxic environment for Republicans seeking to hold onto authority,” Coughlin said. “It feels a lot like 2010 in reverse.”

The 2010 midterms produced the largest House seat gain for either party since 1938.

Fueled by Tea Party energy and voter backlash against the Obama administration, Republicans picked up 63 House seats, their largest gain since 1938, recaptured the House majority and netted six Senate seats.

The HighGround survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Aug. 15-18 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The Noble poll surveyed 923 likely voters Aug. 10-13 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points.

The general election is Nov. 3.

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