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Senate race poll puts McSally ahead of Sinema by 7 percentage points

U.S. Senate candidates, U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., left, and U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., prepare their remarks in a television studio prior to a televised debate, Monday, Oct. 15, 2018, in Phoenix. Both ladies are seeking to fill the seat of U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who is not running for re-election. (AP Photo/Matt York)

PHOENIX — A new poll released Thursday showed Republican Martha McSally was slightly increasing her lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in their Senate race with less than a week before Election Day.

McSally led, 52 percent to 45 percent in the survey of likely voters by OH Predictive Insights/ABC15. The GOP candidate picked up a point from a poll that came out Oct. 10.

“If you were to ask me a month for so ago, I would say Kyrsten Sinema would be winning, if not a toss-up. … The (Brett) Kavanaugh confirmation and the (migrant) caravan issue that has popped up has been the biggest game-changer here in Arizona,” OH Predictive Insights managing partner Mike Noble said on KTAR 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News.

In the “hottest race” in the country, Noble said, undecideds fell to 2 percent.

McSally ran away with older conservative voters. Ages 55 and older chose her over Sinema, 92 percent to 4 percent. Another 4 percent was undecided. Voters 54 and younger opted for McSally 72 percent to 23 percent.

Voters who have already cast their ballots was another story. McSally and Sinema were tied at 46 percent, but those planning to go to the polls Tuesday, McSally had a wide margin, 64 percent to 29 percent.

The poll of 600 was taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 22-23. The margin of error was 4 percent.

But two other polls that were released earlier in the week showed two different stories.

NBC/Marist poll found that Sinema held a six-point lead over McSally, 50 percent to 44 percent.

The poll also found that a combined 6 percent of likely voters were undecided or preferred another candidate.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday had the two tied at 46 percent. Likely voters were asked, “If the Arizona election for U.S. Senator were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema or Republican Martha McSally.

The Fox poll of 643 had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

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