Rep. Ruben Gallego leads over Kari Lake in Senate race, new poll says

PHOENIX — Arizona could decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate this general election. A new poll by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) suggests that balance may lean left.

Polling results released Thursday by the Phoenix-based research firm found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 47-40%.

Although Gallego is 7 percentage points ahead, his lead actually represents a drop in the length of space between him and Lake.

Back in May, NPI said he led by a full 10 points.

This May poll took place before Lake officially won the nomination in the Republican primary. Gallego ran unopposed on the Democratic side.

What do the numbers say?

The difference in the new poll represents a spike in Lake’s popularity. Lake earned 4 more points from undecided voters, NPI said.

Gallego leads among independents by 46-29%, although one-quarter of this section of the electorate is undecided.

Furthermore, Gallego leads over Lake among voters who are unsure of who to vote for in the presidential race by 34% to 6%.

NPI also found that 50% of registered voters view Lake unfavorably. Only 37% see her positively.

NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble said Lake still has room to grow despite Gallego’s superior position.

“In our polarized world, it’s hard to imagine things going much better for him than they have in this past year,” Noble said. “Lake clearly has room to grow with wayward Republicans and swing voters. The real question: Is she the sort of candidate that can grow her support?”

The polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics also has Gallego leading in Arizona by 8.3%.

It’s notable that Lake is trailing Gallego as she has tied herself to former President Donald Trump, who is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race in Arizona, according to a Noble poll conducted the same time as this U.S. Senate poll.

Arizona race could shift balance of power in the U.S. Senate

The winner of the U.S. Senate race will replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking reelection.

Researchers conducted this survey Aug. 12-16 of this year. They surveyed 1,003 registered voters in Arizona. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09%.

The NPI poll found Gallego leads on climate change (47-27%), abortion (47-33%), healthcare (46-35%) and affordable housing (45-35%).

However, Lake leads on immigration (43-41%) and taxes (41-40%).

“Lake has many of the personal weaknesses of Trump: a bombastic personality, extreme positions, jumping straight to politics with little prior elected experience,” Noble said. “But she doesn’t have Trump’s proven record on issues like the economy and immigration. She has similar personality problems and none of his credibility. If she wants to win, she has to change that dynamic.”

Gallego and Lake are set to debate on Oct. 9.