New poll for Arizona shows Democrats Kamala Harris, Ruben Gallego leading races

PHOENIX – A new poll for Arizona conducted after the primary election shows Democrats leading their U.S. Senate and presidential races.

The results released Thursday by HighGround Public Affairs show Vice President Kamala Harris with a 2.8-percentage point lead over former President Donald Trump and U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego up on Kari Lake by a whopping 11 points.

The Phoenix-based pollster and consulting firm conducted the survey of 500 likely voters July 31-Aug. 5, three months before the Nov. 5 general election. It started the day after the primary election and finished the day Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.

What does new poll for Arizona say about Senate race?

Lake made the leap from TV news anchor to right-wing firebrand by strongly supporting Trump and his MAGA movement. However, the Republican Senate nominee is running 4.8 points behind the presidential nominee among GOP voters in Arizona, according to the poll.

Republican voters officially made Lake their Senate nominee during the primary, where she defeated Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb by nearly 16 percentage points. Gallego ran unopposed on the Democratic side.

HighGround CEO and President Chuck Coughlin said Gallego’s 49.6%-38.6% overall lead in the new poll is bad news for Lake, who lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs in the 2022 gubernatorial race.

“Republicans will be taking this race off the board nationally and focusing resources on other more competitive U.S. Senate races like Montana and Ohio,” Coughlin said in a press release. “As the acclaimed Phoenix Suns broadcaster Al McCoy used to say, ‘You can put this one in the deep freeze.’”

Presidential race in Arizona tightens with Harris as nominee

The GOP outlook isn’t as grim in the race for Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes. Harris’ 44.4%-41.6% lead over Trump is within the HighGround poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.38%.

“It’s a good start [for Democrats], but with the attacks already starting, we expect some rough patches ahead,” Coughlin said. “For the past three cycles, Democrats have consistently performed better with the independent and unaffiliated voter audience. Harris continues that trend in our latest polling, but it will be up to her and her team to keep them.”

According to the poll average compiled by RealClearPolitics, Trump was leading Harris by 2.8 percentage points in Arizona without the HighGround results.

However, that indicates progress for Harris. Trump’s polling average lead in Arizona was 5.8 points in before President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid on July 21 and endorsed his vice president for the top of the ticket.

Gallego, meanwhile, was leading Lake by 3.4 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average as of Thursday morning.

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