Arizona voters are split on potential ballot measure to make abortion a statewide right, poll finds

PHOENIX — Arizona voters are evenly split on a potential ballot measure on abortion rights, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

That ballot measure is the Arizona Abortion Access Act. Advocates hope this initiative will enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution.

Voters were evenly divided when asked about the potential 2024 ballot measure. Of respondents to the poll from Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), 18% were unsure, while a remaining 41% supported it and 41% opposed it.

This split will likely be replicated in the ballot box, according to David Byler, NPI chief of research.

“This is a perfect example of how a small share of voters in battleground Arizona often end up deciding elections,” Byler said. “With an even split like this, those 18% of undecided will make or break this ballot measure.”

The survey of 1,003 registered Arizona voters was conducted May 7-14 and has a margin of error of 3.09%.

Arizona voters’ thoughts on abortion ahead of 2024 election

Most Arizonans were in favor of reproductive rights, with 40% supporting abortion in all cases. Another 49% wanted abortion legal but only under certain conditions, according to results released Tuesday.

Surveyors then asked for specific circumstances that would make this 49% feel like abortion is OK.

Eighty-five percent of respondents said abortion should be legal when the mother’s life is endangered. Respondents also said abortion should be legal when the baby was conceived by rape (82%) or incest (78%).

Another 57% said mothers should be legally able to abort babies at risk of severe complications, while 45% supported abortions within a certain timeframe.

The survey results came two months after the Arizona Supreme Court set in motion controversy over abortion rights in the state.

Arizona’s Supreme Court overturned a December 2022 appeals court decision that said doctors couldn’t be prosecuted under the pre-statehood abortion ban on April 9.

This effectively set back the clock to an 1864 law that carried a sentence of 2-5 years in prison for doctors or anyone else who assists in an abortion.

However, the Arizona Legislature voted to repeal the 1864 law last month and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs signed House Bill 2677 on May 2.

“When Roe was overturned, a significant chunk of the electorate moved left on abortion, but the 1864 lot didn’t have a comparable effect in Arizona,” Byler said. “The governor and Legislature moved quickly on the 1864 law, so it didn’t change the landscape much.”