Here’s what new polling says about Arizona’s potential 3-way US Senate showdown

Aug 3, 2023, 10:45 AM | Updated: Aug 4, 2023, 6:34 am

PHOENIX – A potential third-party U.S. Senate run by Arizona independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema may have Democrats worried, but her presence would actually be a bigger threat to Republicans, according to new polling.

With or without Sinema, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego appears to be the front-runner with the election 15 months away, according to polling conducted last month by Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).

Sinema hasn’t yet announced whether she plans to seek reelection to a second term, but if she does it will create a three-way race because she left the Democratic Party last year.

“Sinema’s third-party run does not guarantee a GOP victory in Arizona’s Senate race, and what is even more interesting is that there appears to be a path to victory for Sinema in a three-way showdown,” Mike Noble, NPI founder, said in a press release Thursday.

“Buckle up and grab your popcorn, because the Senate contest in Arizona is going to be one to watch.”

NPI (formerly OH Predictive Insights) surveyed 1,000 Arizona registered voters July 13-17 to see which way they are leaning in a race that could determine control of the Senate. The results had an error margin of plus or minus 3.1%.

Big picture: Ruben Gallego leading the way

The polling showed Gallego, the presumptive Democratic nominee, ahead of Sinema as well as three potential Republican candidates: Kari Lake and Blake Masters, who both lost statewide contests last year, and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

“Congressman Gallego’s strength in head-to-head matchups shows his appeal across various demographic groups, making him a formidable candidate in this race,” Noble said.

So far, Lamb is the only major Republican officially running. He polled at 4 percentage points behind Gallego (40%-36%) in a head-to-head contest, easily the strongest showing of the GOP options.

Adding Sinema to the mix, however, increased Gallego’s advantage over Lamb to 8 points. In that scenario, the Democrat got 33%, the Republican 25% and the independent 24%, with 18% undecided.

Who is polling better: Kyrsten Sinema, Kari Lake or Blake Masters?

In hypothetical races with Lake or Masters, Gallego had comfortable head-to-head leads against either. And when Sinema was included, the Republicans slipped to third place.

Lake, who lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs in the 2022 race for governor, trailed Gallego by 10% in a head-to-head matchup, 45%-35%. A three-way race showed Gallego at 34%, Sinema at 26% and Lake at 25%, with 15% undecided.

Masters, who lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in last year’s Senate race, trailed Gallego 44%-36% in a two-way race. With the sitting senator independent included, Gallego dropped to 32%, the Sinema grabbed 28% and Masters slipped to 24%, with 16% undecided.

“Sen. Sinema’s entry could create a more complex electoral landscape, given her ability to draw support from independents,” Noble said.

We want to hear from you.

Have a story idea or tip? Pass it along to the KTAR News team here.

Arizona News

(Maricopa County Recorder's Office Graphic)...

Watch: Maricopa County Recorder Republican primary debate

Three candidates are set to square off in the Maricopa County Recorder Republican primary debate on June 24.

1 hour ago

Sabrina Carpenter performs at the Coachella Stage during the 2024 Coachella Valley Music and Arts F...

Danny Shapiro

Sabrina Carpenter making stop in Phoenix later this year on ‘Short n’ Sweet’ tour

Sabrina Carpenter fans, "Please Please Please" get ready for the pop star to make a tour stop in Phoenix later this year.

3 hours ago

A construction worker wipes his face on his sleeve. Phoenix is seeing heat and humidity, but the fi...

Kevin Stone

Despite heat and humidity, Phoenix still waiting on first monsoon storms of the year

Although metro Phoenix is getting hit with heat and humidity, it isn't yet adding up to the area's first monsoon storm of the year.

4 hours ago

Senior living community in Phoenix gets $9M loan for green facelift...

Serena O'Sullivan

Senior living community in Phoenix gets $9.1M loan for eco-friendly upgrades

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced its $9.12 million loan to Urban League Manor Apartments on June 21, 2024.

6 hours ago

Mugshot of Walter Ringfield, who allegedly stole a security fob and keys from the Maricopa County T...

Temporary Maricopa County elections worker arrested after theft from tabulation center

A temporary elections worker was arrested for allegedly stealing a security fob and keys from the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center.

7 hours ago

Exterior of Phoenix Fire Station 25 as seen on Google Street View. A firefighter was injured in an ...

Phoenix firefighter injured after gun accidentally discharges at Station 25

A firefighter was injured over the weekend in what appears to be an accidental shooting at a west Phoenix fire station.

9 hours ago

Sponsored Articles


Midwestern University

Midwestern University Clinic visits boost student training & community health

Going to a Midwestern University Clinic can help make you feel good in more ways than one.


Sanderson Ford

3 new rides for 3 new road trips in Arizona

It's time for the Sanderson Ford Memorial Day sale with the Mighty Fine 69 Anniversary, as Sanderson Ford turned 69 years old in May.


Condor Airlines

Condor Airlines can get you smoothly from Phoenix to Frankfurt on new A330-900neo airplane

Adventure Awaits! And there's no better way to experience the vacation of your dreams than traveling with Condor Airlines.

Here’s what new polling says about Arizona’s potential 3-way US Senate showdown