Arizona governor’s race polling shows Kari Lake narrowly leading Katie Hobbs

Oct 14, 2022, 9:16 AM | Updated: 9:21 am

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (left, AP Photo) and Republican candidate for governor Kari ...

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (left, AP Photo) and Republican candidate for governor Kari Lake (Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

PHOENIX – With the general election less than a month away, polling for the Arizona governor’s race showed Republican Kari Lake with a narrow edge over Democrat Katie Hobbs.

A newly released poll by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights found Lake with a 47%-44% advantage. The survey was conducted Oct. 4-6 and has a margin of effort of plus or minus 3.77%, which is larger than Lake’s lead.

“The race is unequivocally a toss-up — maybe a slight edge to Lake — but this race is super close with only 10% undecided,” Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Thursday.

A further breakdown showed Hobbs, Arizona’s secretary of state, ahead of Lake 46%-40% among independents, while Latino voters were evenly split at 44%-44%.

Early voting for the Nov. 8 midterms started Wednesday.

One poll is just a snapshot of the time it was conducted. Polling averages that compile findings from multiple pollsters are a good tool for analyzing overall race trends.

Two national websites that track polls and publish updated averages showed Lake barely ahead as of Friday morning, with the former TV news anchor up by .9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s version and 1 point according to RealClearPolitics.

During Thursday’s interview, Noble revealed unreleased OHPI poll results for other statewide offices, and they mirrored the governor’s race to show Republicans holding narrow leads. But with large chunks of voters still undecided, the races for attorney general, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction also look like toss-ups.

  • For attorney general, Abraham Hamadeh was in front of Democrat Kris Mayes 42%-39%, with 19% undecided.
  • For secretary of state, Mark Finchem led Democrat Adrian Fontes 43%-41%, with 17% undecided.
  • For superintendent of public instruction, challenger Tom Horne had a 42%-41% advantage over Democratic incumbent Kathy Hoffman, with 17% undecided.

OHPI results for the U.S. Senate race released earlier in the week showed that not all of Arizona’s statewide polls are close or in the GOP’s favor. Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly was at 46%, Republican Blake Masters was well behind at 33% and Libertarian Marc Victor had 15%, with only 7% undecided.

In the Senate polling averages, FiveThirtyEight showed Kelly up by 6.3 points as of Friday morning and RealClearPolitics had the incumbent leading by 4.5 points.

We want to hear from you.

Have a story idea or tip? Pass it along to the KTAR News team here.

Arizona News

(City of Buckeye Facebook Photo)...

Tom Kuebel

Buckeye celebrates groundbreaking of 444-unit residential community near downtown

Buckeye celebrated the groundbreaking of a 444-unit residential community near downtown.

7 hours ago

FILE - Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs delivers her State of the State address at the Arizona C...

Associated Press

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs didn’t step down this week. So what happened?

Arizona’s governor was out of the state for a day this week, prompting false claims that she’d abruptly resigned or vanished entirely.

8 hours ago

Patrons are warned about the heat at the Desert Botanical Garden entrance, Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2023,...

Associated Press

Heat-related deaths continue to rise even as the calendar turns to October

Confirmed heat-associated deaths in Arizona’s most populous county continue rising even as the weather turns cooler.

9 hours ago

picture of end of roll of caution tape...

Tucson woman sentenced to 20 years after running woman over multiple times

Yvette Naomi Garcia was sentenced to 20 years in prison after she pleaded guilty to second-degree murder on Friday.

10 hours ago

(Trevor's Liquor photo)...

Wills Rice

Trevor’s Liquor to open 4th location in late 2024 at Paradise Valley Mall

Trevor's Liquor announced it will be opening its fourth location in late 2024 in the Paradise Valley Mall redevelopment.

11 hours ago

Medical school students...

Brandon Gray

Gov. Katie Hobbs announces $11M investment in to state’s health care workforce

Gov. Katie Hobbs announced Friday the state will invest $11 million into the Arizona Board of Regents' AZ Healthy Tomorrow Initiative. 

13 hours ago

Sponsored Articles

Home moving relocation in Arizona 2023...

BMS Moving

Tips for making your move in Arizona easier

If you're moving to a new home in Arizona, use this to-do list to alleviate some stress and ensure a smoother transition to your new home.



When most diets fail, re:vitalize makes a difference that shows

Staying healthy and losing weight are things many people in Arizona are conscious of, especially during the summer.



Here are the biggest tips to keep your AC bill low this summer

PHOENIX — In Arizona during the summer, having a working air conditioning unit is not just a pleasure, but a necessity. No one wants to walk from their sweltering car just to continue to be hot in their home. As the triple digits hit around the Valley and are here to stay, your AC bill […]

Arizona governor’s race polling shows Kari Lake narrowly leading Katie Hobbs