Not all polls show Kari Lake trouncing Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona governor’s primary

PHOENIX – Polls appear to show Kari Lake with a comfortable lead in Arizona’s Republican race for governor, but not all of the recent results point to a blowout in Tuesday’s primary election.

After Lake racked up a string of dominant polls, one firm released findings over the weekend showing a tossup with her main challenger, Karrin Taylor Robson.

The Real Clear Politics polling average for the contest showed Lake ahead of Taylor Robson by nearly 9 percentage points on Monday, 47.5%-38.8%. But that included a poll conducted Thursday-Saturday by Emerson College that showed Taylor Robson ahead by 1 point.

The Emerson results were whiplash from OH Predictive Insights findings released Friday that showed Lake up by 18 points, the biggest margin seen in any poll throughout the campaign.

ARIZONA POLL:

GOP #AZGov Primary:@Karrin4Arizona 49%@KariLake 48%@ZforArizona 2%@ScottNeelyAZ 1%https://t.co/MlcY3ZKlmu pic.twitter.com/XafI2NcZco

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) July 31, 2022

The other Arizona Republican primary gaining national attention isn’t seeing the same kind of polling swings. Blake Masters had a 13-point lead Monday over his nearest opponent, Jim Lamon, in the Real Clear Politics average for the state’s U.S. Senate race and has led every poll since April.

Lake and Masters are both endorsed by former President Donald Trump. But while Emerson College came up with results that cast doubt on the direction of the gubernatorial race, that wasn’t the case the Senate race, which was surveyed at the same time.

Emerson showed Masters with an 18-point lead in the new results, the biggest spread of any poll on the race.

The weekend results were the first released by Emerson on the Arizona races, so there’s no trend to track from the firm.

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