Kari Lake widens lead considerably over Karrin Taylor Robson in Arizona poll

PHOENIX – A poll of Republican voters in Arizona found governor’s race leader Kari Lake running away from Karrin Taylor Robson just days before the primary election.

OH Predictive Insights’ survey made public Friday showed Lake, a former TV anchor, pulling away from Taylor Robson 51%-33%. A similar poll taken just before early voting got underway July 6 had Lake up 39%-31%.

The primary election is Tuesday.

The poll, “kind of solidifies that narrative of the establishment vs. the folks looking to shake up the system,” Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights’ chief of research, told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Friday.

“In this new age of the kind of haves and have-nots … those GOP bases are pretty fired up looking for something different from the status quo.”

NEW State of GOP Poll

Governor's Race:

Kari Lake: 51%
Karrin Taylor Robson: 33%
Matt Salmon: 2%
Scott Neely: 1%
Paola Tulliani-Zen: 1%
Undecided: 12%

Full Release here: https://t.co/iTppoOtWko pic.twitter.com/cWOzYVTFKy

— OHPI (@OHPredictive) July 29, 2022

Lake has never trailed in the Phoenix-based company’s polling.

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, who dropped out of the battle June 28, remains on the ballot and came in at 2%. Scott Neely and Paola Tulliani-Zen each had 1%.

Undecideds/refused to say numbered 12%, which was a drop of 9% from the early July poll.

“I think the race will be a little closer than what this poll indicates, assuming those folks that are undecided probably are break a little bit more towards Robson,” Noble said, “… clearly in the last three weeks or the momentum has gone to Lake, not Robson.”

Breaking down the findings, Lake claimed 55% of women voters to Taylor Robson’s 31% and led 47%-36% among men. The Donald Trump acolyte also was the top choice in Maricopa County 51%-35% and rural areas 52%-30%.

Endorsed by the former president in late September, Lake grabbed the support of 75% of the poll participants who self-identified as Trump supporters.

Taylor Robson, endorsed by Gov. Doug Ducey and former Vice President Mike Pence, was favored by 62% of voters who self-identified mainly as Republican Party supporters.

Taylor Robson, a developer who sat on the Arizona Board of Regents, has outspent Lake $18.4 million to $3.6 million during the run of the campaign, according to finance reports.

She spent nearly $2 million July 1-16 and loaned herself another $1.85 million during that time, bringing her reported self-funding total to $15.2 million.

“Traditionally, the one that has more money spent on paid media sources plus traditional endorsements, typically [was] the route in showing a candidate’s strength and viability,” Noble said.

That’s no longer the case, he added.

“The game has changed in politics,” Noble said.

Follow @KTAR923