Here’s what latest poll says about Arizona GOP primaries for governor, senator, other races

PHOENIX – Arizona gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson and U.S. Senate hopeful Jim Lamon are within single digits of the front-runners in their Republican primary races, according to polling released Wednesday.

With the primaries less than four months away, Taylor Robson, a former member of the Arizona Board of Regents, is now the clear No. 2 behind former TV anchor Kari Lake, according to the OH Predictive Insights survey of likely Arizona GOP voters.

The poll conducted April 4-5 showed Lake with 29% and Taylor Robson at 22%, while former Congressman Matt Salmon and 2018 secretary of state candidate Steve Gaynor were well back at 11% and 3%, respectively.

“Salmon needs to figure out how to gain some momentum, Lake needs to figure out a way to increase her base of support, Robson needs to not run out of money, and Gaynor needs to do something – anything to stave off irrelevancy,” Mike Noble, chief of research for Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, said in a press release.

Two candidates who submitted enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, Paola Tulliani-Zen and Scott Neely, weren’t offered as options by the pollsters. More than a third of respondents were either undecided (35%) or refused to respond (1%).

In the race to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the November general election, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (21%) and businessman Lamon (16%) were the only candidates in double digits.

Venture capitalist Blake Masters was at 9%, former Arizona National Guard leader Mick McGuire had 6% and Arizona Corporation Commissioner Justin Olson had 3%. Nearly half were either unsure (44%) or refused to respond (1%).

“None of the candidates have been able to break away and define themselves in the Senate contest,” Noble said. “They will need to do a better job of convincing voters that they deserve to be the GOP nominee to take on Kelly in November.”

The poll also covered the state’s GOP primaries for attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer and superintendent of public instruction, but at least two-thirds of voters in each of those races said they were unsure.

The respondents with a preference favored incumbent Kimberly Yee for treasurer, state Rep. Mark Finchem for secretary of state and former Attorney General Tom Horne for superintendent of public instruction, with each the only candidate in their race in double figures.

Nobody garnered more than 5% in the attorney general contest, which had 75% unsure.

“In the down-ticket races, the biggest vote share goes to the voters who are undecided,” Noble said. “These aspiring candidates should focus on raising money and getting in front of as many voters as they can from now until Election Day if they hope to be victorious come August.”

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