Nearly 90% of Arizona voters plan to cast midterm ballots, most before Election Day, poll finds

PHOENIX – Arizonans are eager to vote, mostly early, in this year’s hotly contested midterm elections, according to poll results released Thursday.

Polling done this month by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights found that 87% of registered Arizona voters are likely to vote — 65% very likely — in November, when high-profile races for governor and both chambers of Congress will top the ballots.

More than 80% of voters intend to cast their ballots before Election Day, which is Nov. 8.

A majority of voters, 62%, plan to submit early ballots by mail, with 12% planning to drop off early ballots in person before Election Day and 7% planning to cast in-person votes before Election Day.

With 4% unsure, that leaves 15% intending to cast ballots on Election Day – 11% in-person and 4% dropping off completed early ballots.

As far as which party has the advantage, the electorate is pretty evenly split right now, according to the poll conducted March 7-15 (margin of error plus or minus 3.6%).

When voters were asked which party they preferred, with no candidate names attached, Republicans had a slight advantage of 39%-37% over Democrats in the governor and U.S. Senate races, while the generic ballot for Congress was dead even at 37%-37%.

Breaking it down further, Democrats have the advantage among self-described moderates, independents and Hispanic voters, while Republicans are favored by middle-income ($50,000-$100,000 annual earnings) and suburban voters.

“However, primary elections aren’t until August, so we will continue to keep a close eye to see who begins to climb the ladder,” Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief of research, said in a press release.

While past voting behavior and recent polling shows that most Arizona voters have embraced mail-in voting since it was implemented in the 1990s, state Republicans have been attempting to restrict it.

GOP lawmakers have been moving legislation that would eliminate nearly all forms of early voting, and the Arizona Republican Party has filed a lawsuit that argues no-excuse absentee ballots should be declared unconstitutional.

OH Predictive Insights released a poll earlier this week that found 74% of Arizona voters support mail-in voting and only 10% oppose it.

“As seen in our previous survey release, Arizona voters are leaning deeper into their preferences for voting by mail, and this year’s midterm elections will be no exception with 3 in 5 Arizonans planning to vote entirely by mail,” Noble said.

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