Health expert says Arizona will have a hospital crisis even with interventions
Dec 2, 2020, 4:15 AM | Updated: 7:31 am
PHOENIX – A prominent health expert said Tuesday that Arizona will have a hospital crisis no matter what coronavirus interventions happen now.
“It doesn’t matter what interventions happen at this point,” Will Humble, executive director for the Arizona Public Health Association and former director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Gaydos & Chad.
“It doesn’t matter if you shut all the bars and make the restaurants go back to just takeout right now, we will still have a hospital crisis.”
In order for coronavirus mitigation measures to have an effect, they have to be in place for a few weeks before a result is seen because the virus has an incubation period, Humble noted.
Arizona has a seasonal hospital system which typically sees its peaks in late December and all of January with winter visitors who have chronic medical conditions and patients from cold and flu season.
“There are often times where the hospitals are right up at capacity right after the New Years holiday and through January, and we’re going to have double duty with COVID,” Humble said.
RELATED STORIES
The state saw previously saw a peak in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in mid-July before cases started to come down. In late-June, a number of cities including Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff among other implemented citywide face covering requirements, which have been attributed to mitigating the spread of the virus.
Researchers from the University of Arizona COVID Modeling Team sent a letter last week to the Arizona Department of Health Services urging actions to be taken to lower the case numbers by implementing a statewide mask requirement and pushing for a three-week stay-at home order.
Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey has balked on doing either of these, saying local face coverings are sufficient and that he has no plans to shut down the state.
Humble said the state’s hospital crisis could see people who are normally admitted be sent home instead, or people who are coming out of the ICU who might typically spend a few days in a general hospital bed be immediately discharged to free up space.
On Tuesday, Arizona health officials reported 10,322 new coronavirus cases and 48 deaths, bringing the documented totals to 337,139 COVID-19 infections and 6,687 fatalities. However, Arizona Department of Health Services Director Dr. Cara Christ attributed the astronomically high case total to delays in processing from the holiday weekend.
Humble said in order to gain a more accurate picture of the state of coronavirus in the state, it’s important to look at the seven-day rolling average, which was 3,499 on Monday.
