Democrats Biden, Kelly continue to lead in Arizona, new poll finds
PHOENIX — Democrats Joe Biden and Mark Kelly continue to hold steady leads over their Republican counterparts in Arizona about a month from Election Day, according to a New York Times poll released Monday.
The New York Times-Siena College poll found Biden to be leading President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in the Grand Canyon State. The same pollsters released results on Sept. 20 showing Biden ahead of the Republican president by 9 percentage points in Arizona.
Kelly led Republican U.S. Sen. Martha McSally by 11 points in Monday’s poll. Kelly led McSally by 8 points in the Sept. 20 poll.
While the margins have fluctuated between 1 and 17 points, McSally has trailed in every poll since the start of September, according to FiveThirtyEight.com tracking.
The polling was conducted Thursday-Saturday, starting after Tuesday’s presidential debate and continuing after Trump announced his COVID-19 diagnosis early Friday morning.
Biden’s lead is propelled by a strong showing in Maricopa County, which is considered key to winning in Arizona.
The Democrat leads by 9 percentage points in the state’s largest county. Trump won Maricopa County by 3 percentage points in 2016.
Just 6% of likely Arizona voters are still undecided in their pick for president, per the polling.
The poll found that Biden is still performing well with women (up 20 percentage points) and Hispanic (up 38 percentage points) voters.
The NYT results boosted Biden’s lead to 4.1 points in FiveThirtyEight.com‘s average of all Arizona polls, which had dropped as low as 3.1 points in the past week.
Arizona is seen as a potential tipping point in the Nov. 3 general election for both the presidential race and the fight for control of the Senate.
Kelly and McSally will square off Tuesday in their only scheduled debate.
Biden, running mate Kamala Harris and Vice President Mike Pence all have campaign visits scheduled in Arizona this week as well.
Trump was supposed to campaign in Tucson on Monday and Flagstaff on Tuesday before those plans were canceled because of his coronavirus diagnosis.