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Martha McSally and Mark Kelly Arizona's Senate race
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Martha McSally trims Mark Kelly’s lead in Arizona’s Senate race, poll finds

Republican Sen. Martha McSally and likely Democratic challenger Mark Kelly are in a tight race for McSally's seat. (Facebook Photos)

PHOENIX – Republican incumbent Martha McSally is closing the gap on likely Democratic opponent Mark Kelly in Arizona’s hotly contested 2020 U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll.

McSally cut her deficit to 3 percentage points, within the margin of error, in a poll released Wednesday by Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights.

Kelly, a former astronaut and the husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, had a 47%-44% lead, with 9% remaining undecided, in the poll of likely Arizona voters conducted Dec. 3-4.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.91%, making the race, expected to be among the most expensive in the nation, a statistical dead heat.

An August poll by OH Predictive Insights showed Kelly leading by 5 percentage points, 46%-41%, with 13% undecided.

Democrats are targeting McSally’s seat, which was formerly held by the late John McCain, as a key prize in their attempt to gain control of the Senate.

Mike Noble, the research firm’s chief of research, thinks House Democrats’ moves to impeach President Donald Trump could be backfiring on their party.

“It’s starting to bode well for Republicans and not so much for Democrats, especially here in Arizona,” Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM. “I would probably say that a decent part of this is probably due to what’s going on in Washington with impeachment.”

Noble said the split along gender lines in the new poll, especially among older voters, is noteworthy.

“Martha McSally does incredibly well with men 55 and older, with 51% in support of her and only 39% supporting Kelly,” Noble said. “However, the shoe is on the other foot when you look at women over the age of 55; 54% are in support of Mark Kelly, and only 35% in support of Martha McSally, which is very interesting.”

Combined, Kelly is leading McSally 47%-43% among voters ages 55 and older, typically a GOP strength.

“The sitting senator still has a lot of ground to make up with the important groups if she hopes to maintain her seat,” Noble said.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Ashley Flood contributed to this report.

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