Will the Valley see a wet Christmas? Here’s what the forecast says

PHOENIX — While it won’t be a white Christmas in the Valley, it could be a wet Christmas, at least while presents are being opened.

The Valley is expected to see two rounds of rain over the next two nights, with the heaviest rainfall expected on Christmas Eve night and Christmas morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The first rainy period is expected to hit overnight from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but it is not expected to make a significant impact.

“Rainfall chances are around 50%-60% with that,” NWS meteorologist Gabriel Lojero told KTAR News 92.3 FM. “Rainfall should only amount to a few hundredths to potentially up to a tenth of an inch.”

Latest high-resolution models now capture most of the "first round" of precipitation with the incoming system. Here is a loop of potential future radar Tue afternoon – 5 AM MST Wed. Rain will be light and fall through dry air, so not all of it will reach the ground. #azwx #cawx pic.twitter.com/Kw5b4rJ95v

— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) December 22, 2025

How much rain could fall on Christmas?

Anyone with outdoor plans on Christmas Eve night or Christmas morning should bring a rain jacket, as heavier and more widespread rainfall is expected, according to the NWS.

“The probability of rain is anywhere between 70% and 90% across the area,” Lojero said. “So, it’s going to be a pretty rainy period.”

Lojero added that some areas could see between three-quarters of an inch and an inch of rain, with the most rain expected in the foothills just north of the Valley.

“And then across the Phoenix area, probably, we’re around half an inch of rain, but there could be some areas that see locally higher amounts,” he said.

How could rain affect Valley temperatures?

December has been unseasonably warm, and this week is no exception, as the Valley has already seen two straight days of record heat and another daily heat record could be broken on Tuesday, according to the NWS.

Tuesday’s forecast high temperature is 80 degrees, which would break the record of 79 degrees set on Dec. 23, 1950. The normal high temperature for this date is 65 degrees, per NWS records.

However, once the rain hits, the Valley is expected to cool down, with highs forecast to drop into the low 70s and high 60s by the weekend.

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