After hottest spring ever, metro Phoenix looks ahead to possible monsoon relief

After metro Phoenix just survived its hottest spring on record, monsoon rain may be waiting on the horizon.

Randall Cerveny, the professor of geographical sciences and urban planning at Arizona State University, said the record spring heat was the result of an “extremely large” high-pressure system hovering over the Valley most of March.

“When you get high pressure, you get clear skies. You get clear skies, you get sunshine coming down to the ground and the chance to warm up to incredibly hot temperatures,” Cerveny told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News on Wednesday.

Meteorologists define spring as starting on March 1 and ending on May 31.

“May has not been that bad as we all know here,” Cerveny explained. “We’re going to start to warm up now as we get into June because that high-pressure system that I just mentioned is going to be setting up over top of us.”

Spring 2026 Climate Summary: This Spring was the hottest Spring on record across the region, largely driven by the historic March heat. It was also a very dry Spring across the area. #azwx #cawx pic.twitter.com/2KRRCsagqm

— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) June 1, 2026

This is to be expected, he added.

“That’s a normal part of June. We need to have that hot temperature in order to start to generate the flow (and) the winds that will push moisture up … for the monsoon,” Cerveny said.

Hoping for rain? Here’s some good news

With the meteorological summer underway and Arizona’s monsoon season starting June 15, rain lovers can expect thunderstorms and moisture.

“The nice thing — if you want to look at at some good news — is the idea that this monsoon season probably is going to have that kind of activity starting up again,” Cerveny said.

Not only that, but the National Weather Service projects that this monsoon season will be wetter than usual.

“The places that get the most rainfall in the urban metropolitan area are places like Cave Creek where the moisture gets pushed up from the Salt River Valley up into the area,” Cerveny explained. “Occasionally if we get enough moisture, we’re not only going to have storms that will occur up around Cave Creek, but they will occur down in the Valley as well. That’s what we’re looking for this summer.”

How will El Niño impact the monsoon season in metro Phoenix?

Cerveny also addressed reports that a “super El Niño” may be developing.

He explained that El Niño happens when waters in the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. Normally, the central Pacific has cooler water, but every several years, warmer water shifts east from near Australia across the Pacific.

“That causes a huge mess of the weather patterns across the world,” Cerveny said. “Generally, El Niño as such doesn’t impact our summer, but this year it might.”

Cerveny said El Niño can lead to more hurricanes off the coast of Mexico and fewer in the Atlantic. While the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be mild, more storms could form in the eastern Pacific near Mexico.

“Those storms (are) not going to reach up into Arizona, but their moisture will,” he said. “When they live and when they die, they put out their moisture. That gets pushed up the Gulf of California and into Arizona, so we’re kind of anticipating with this El Niño having more storms off the coast of Mexico, the moisture from those storms will get pushed up into Arizona and we’re going to have more active thunderstorms.”

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