Arizona’s monsoon season projected to be wetter than usual, but not enough to end the drought

Arizona should get a wetter-than-normal 2026 monsoon season — plus a wetter fall and winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The latest Climate Prediction Center maps show a lot of green, which means precipitation, Arizona State Climatologist Erinanne Saffell told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News on Friday.

“That summer precipitation, the monsoon season, is great because it really helps our vegetation, it helps the soils, but we really want that winter precipitation to refill our reservoirs. That’s the big deal,” Saffell said.

But no matter how much rain falls this summer, Arizona’s climate will remain “thirsty,” she explained. The state’s long-term drought conditions have persisted since 1994.

“It’s been very, very hot over the last few months,” Saffell said. “That really plays a role in what happens with our water supply because a hot atmosphere is a thirsty atmosphere.”

How could monsoon rain impact the Arizona 2026 wildfire season?

Saffell said that while monsoon storms will be welcome, they will still present a wildfire risk.

In the wake of record winter heat, Arizona officials issued warning about an above-average risk of wildfires.

“If we have what’s called a dry thunderstorm, which means we get a little bit of sprinkles, but we still get that lightning. That can be a problem when we’re looking at the wildfire activity,” Safell said. “You can get that lightning, and you don’t get enough rain to put out that potential fire.”

Another double-edged sword related to an active monsoon season is that increased rainfall promotes more grasses and brush that can dry out and become fuel for future fires.

“We pay attention very closely right now as to what’s going on with wildfire activity,” Saffell said.

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