Poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona secretary of state, AG races; superintendent a toss-up

Democrats hold 6-point leads in Arizona’s races for secretary of state and attorney general, while Republican Kimberly Yee holds a narrow edge in the superintendent of public instruction contest, according to new polling released Tuesday by Noble Predictive Insights.

“Arizona down-ballot races do not always get the spotlight, but they can absolutely shape the state’s future,” Noble Predictive Insights CEO Mike Noble said.

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin 41% to 35%, with 20% undecided. Among independent likely voters, Fontes leads Kolodin 42% to 16%, but 34% of that group remains undecided.

“That is a lot of voters still sitting in the political group chat, reading the messages, but not responding yet,” Noble emphasized.

Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen 44% to 38%, with 16% undecided. Mayes’ advantage is especially pronounced among independents, where she leads Petersen 44% to 20%.

The superintendent race is the tightest of the three.

Yee holds the only Republican lead in the three down-ballot contests, but it is the narrowest and falls within the margin of error, with Yee at 40% to Teresa Leyba Ruiz’s 37%.

The contest has the sharpest generational divide: Ruiz leads among voters ages 18-44, while Yee leads among voters 45 and older.

Poll results mirror a broader Democratic advantage in Arizona statewide races

A Noble Predictive Insights poll released last week found Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican challenger Andy Biggs 48% to 35%.

The same poll found Hobbs has consolidated 86% of the Democratic vote, while Biggs has locked up 75% of Republicans.

Across all three races, high undecided shares, especially among independents, leave room for movement before Election Day.

In this most recent polling, the survey was conducted between Aug. 10-13 and included 923 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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