Democrats have rarely controlled a chamber in the Arizona Legislature since the 1960s, but the state could see a seismic shift next week
Pollster Mike Noble said his internal models project Democrats winning the state House and earning a split in the Senate as the most likely outcome of the Nov. 3 election.
Watch: Mike Noble discusses campaign spending in 2026 election | 41 seconds
An Arizona pollster said next week’s election is projected to create a historic shift in Arizona’s political landscape.
Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Tuesday that his internal models favor Democrats winning the state House, tying the Senate and holding the governor’s office.
“A couple of small races may decide a major change in public policy here in Arizona, which … has been very Republican-controlled for a long time. But you have a scenario where you could have a Democrat governor and possibly two Democrat chambers,” Noble said.
Since 1966, Democrats have emerged from elections with a majority in the 60-member House just three times (1974, 1976 and 1990) and never managed better than a 15-15 split in the 30-member Senate.
Democrats have 61% chance of winning Arizona House, pollster says
Noble said his model for the House shows a 61% chance that Democrats win control, a 30% chance of Republicans holding the majority and a 9% chance for a tie.
“That’s not saying it’s guaranteed, but … basically Democrats have their best odds that they’ve ever had to potentially do it. It’s really going to come down to like five seats,” he said of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The GOP teetered on the brink of losing control of the House and Senate several times in recent elections as independents became the state’s largest voting bloc. Republicans clung to one-seat majorities in the House after the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections and won by a single seat in the Senate in 2020 and 2022.
The GOP gained some breathing room in 2024 and worked with a 33-27 majority in the House and a 17-13 advantage in the Senate the past two years.
How many seats do Democrats need to pick up to win Arizona House and Senate?
That means Democrats would have to pick up four seats in the House and three in the Senate to win either of those chambers, and one fewer in each to tie.
Those outcomes are in reach, Noble said, because of how poorly Republicans are faring among independent voters.
“It’s just a tough environment. I’ve never seen Republicans losing independents so badly,” he said. “A decade ago, independents leaned Republican by about 7 points. Now they’re losing independents by roughly about 30 points. It’s insane. I’ve never seen it in 20 years.”
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Comments
6 Comments
The 541 number works on MAGA simpletons. Many whine incessantly about that number but when asked to tell you a few that were truly egregious they can't list a single veto they oppose.
And then of course the only thing wrong with 541 vetoes will be that the number isn’t higher.
I’ll believe it when I see it. But if it DOES happen it’s a clear signal that decent Arizonans are fed up with MAGA and would prefer trying sanity for a change.