New poll sheds light on Arizona governor race after GOP candidate dropped out

PHOENIX – New polling shows how the 2026 Arizona governor race changed after a top Republican candidate dropped out.

According to Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) findings released Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs benefited more from Karrin Taylor Robson’s departure than U.S. Rep. David Schweikert.

However, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leads both Republican congressmen in hypothetical general election matchups.

NPI polling in December 2025 showed Biggs leading the GOP field with 24%, followed by Taylor Robson at 20% and Schweikert at 14%, with 42% undecided.

Taylor Robson, who finished second to Kari Lake in the 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary, suspended her 2026 campaign on Feb. 12, about two weeks before NPI conducted its latest polling.

“With her dropping out, where does that 20 points — where does that disperse? And we can see from our December to our February polling that Andy Biggs got the lion’s share,” NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News.

Biggs, who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, picked up 16 percentage points since the last poll, while Schweikert gained only 5 points. That left the race at Biggs with 40%, Schweikert with 19% and 41% undecided.

What does poll say about Arizona governor race for general election?

The results for potential general matchups haven’t changed much since December, Noble said. The new poll shows Hobbs with a 42%-37% lead over Biggs and an even larger 44%-35% advantage over Schweikert.

“The thing is, though, she’s still below the all-important 50% threshold in either matchup,” Noble said.

Arizona’s primaries are set for July 21, with the general election on Nov. 3.

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