Sen. Martha McSally reduces Mark Kelly lead in latest Arizona poll

PHOENIX – A new poll released Tuesday of likely Arizona voters found that Sen. Martha McSally is making some headway against opponent Mark Kelly in the battle for her job.

Kelly still leads the Republican 52%-43% in OH Predictive Insights’ survey, but the margin has shrunk from 13 percentage points in a similar poll taken in May.

But the phone poll of 600 also revealed 12% of Republican voters favored Kelly.

“The formula for a Republican winning statewide office in Arizona involves locking up the GOP vote and garnering just enough independents,” OH Predictive Insights chief pollster Mike Noble said in a press release.

“Sen. McSally appears to be having a difficult time doing either.”

Kelly leads McSally with independents, 59%-32%.

Democrats, overwhelmingly, went with Kelly at 91%.

Only 5% said they were undecided.

Kelly also was doing well in Arizona’s most populous county Maricopa, and Pima, which is McSally’s stomping ground.

Noble said only one Republican has ever lost Maricopa County and won a statewide election in Arizona, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Diane Douglas in 2014.

McSally is ahead in rural counties, 53%-43%.

The poll, conducted July 6-7, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

According to poll aggregating website FiveThirtyEight.com, the new OH Predictive Insights poll matched the largest lead for Kelly in any of the seven previous polls on the race published this month.

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