Phoenix to warm up again soon but don’t expect an early start to monsoon season

PHOENIX — The official start to summer is about a week away and maybe by then, it’ll feel like it in Phoenix.

The city has experienced high temperatures that are less warm than usual so far in June, with the peaks averaging about three degrees less than average.

It’s a trend welcome for many but one that won’t last.

Phoenix 5-Day Outlook: A gradual warming trend is expected throughout this week with temperatures reaching seasonal averages by the end of the work week. Sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail. Afternoon breeziness is possible beginning mid week. #azwx pic.twitter.com/KCUERwEdDP

— NWS Phoenix (@NWSPhoenix) June 12, 2023

After one day in the last week with a triple-digit high, Phoenix will be back in the 100s by Wednesday, when it is forecast to be 102 degrees.

Temperatures will rise from there, with Thursday’s high expected to be 103 degrees before a jump to 105 degrees on Friday, 107 degrees on Saturday and 106 degrees on Sunday.

Don’t expect monsoon season, which officially starts Thursday, to accompany the typical summer highs.

Randy Cerveny, a climatologist and professor of geographical sciences at Arizona State University, said the strange Phoenix climate patterns have extended beyond the temperature.

“We normally start to see at this time of year … afternoon thunderstorms bubbling up in Mexico,” Cerveny told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday. “But if you look at a satellite image of Mexico right now, it’s bone dry.

“So there’s a lot of work that we’re going to need to do to get that moisture up from the Pacific Ocean and from the Gulf of California up into Arizona, so I’m not anticipating an early start the month.”

Last year’s monsoon season was strong across the metro area despite the official precipitation reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

The airport gauge received 2.23 inches of rain from June 15 to Sept. 30, making it the third-worst season in the past 11 years.

Some areas amassed precipitation totals far greater.

Apache Junction collected 8.71 inches of rain and Globe had 7.94 inches.

Typically, Apache Junction averages 3.92 inches of rain and Globe around 6 inches.

Most of Arizona remains out of a drought state following a strong winter of precipitation, especially in the high country.

“It is a very localized thing and while there are some general ideas that normally one half of the Valley might get more rain than the other half, that varies and it’ll be interesting to see what’s going to actually happen this year in terms of who are the big winners and who are the big losers,” Cerveny said.

KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Jim Cross contributed to this report.

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