Ahead of Election Day, new poll shows Democrats leading Arizona governor, secretary of state and attorney general races

New polling conducted the week before Election Day and released Friday shows the incumbent Democrats leading Arizona’s governor, secretary of state and attorney general races.

Gov. Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes each lead their Republican opponents with support from at least 50% of likely general election voters surveyed by Noble Predictive Insights.

The Phoenix-based research firm conducted the poll Oct. 26-28, finishing six days before Election Day on Tuesday. The survey of 511 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.34 percentage points. About half of the participants had already submitted their ballots during early voting.

Hobbs’ 51% to 45% lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and Fontes’ 50% to 44% lead over state Rep. Alexander Kolodin are both outside the poll’s margin of error. Mayes’ lead of 50% to 46% over state Senate President Warren Petersen is barely within the margin of error.

“We’re looking at two very different electorates,” Noble Predictive Insights founder and CEO Mike Noble said in a news release. “Hobbs leads by 26 points among voters who say they’ve already cast their ballots, while Biggs leads by 15 points among those who haven’t. That’s a striking divide heading into Election Day.”

The poll also covered the superintendent of public instruction race and found Republican Kimberley Yee, the current state treasurer, leading Democratic nominee Teresa Leyba Ruiz by 2 percentage points.

“Republicans outnumber Democrats in this likely-voter sample, yet Democrats lead three of the four races,” Noble said. “A big part of that story is independents. Yee is still losing those voters, but by a much smaller margin than the other Republican candidates. That’s what makes her race different.”

Biggs and Petersen have narrowed gaps since last Noble Predictive Insights poll

Two of the Republicans, Biggs and Petersen, gained ground on their opponents since the last round of statewide polling by Noble Predictive Insights. In August, the firm found Hobbs leading Biggs by 13 points (48% to 35%) and Mayes leading Petersen by 6 points (44% to 38%). Fontes’ lead over Kolodin was the same 6 points (41% to 35%) as it is now, while Yee’s was slightly larger in August at 3 points (40% to 37%).

The new Noble Predictive Insights numbers came out three days after HighGround Inc. released poll results Tuesday showing Hobbs, Fontes and Mayes all with double-digit leads and Ruiz ahead of Yee by 4 points.

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