Arizona political consultant thinks Democrats will ‘end up disappointed’ with election results

A Republican political consultant and former Arizona lawmaker believes reports of the GOP’s demise in the upcoming election are greatly exaggerated.

Stan Barnes, founder and president of Copper State Consulting Group, said that while Republicans have good reason to be concerned about Tuesday’s election, he does not think Democrats can take control of the Legislature.

“It’s certainly not out of the question, but it’s not the first time I’ve ever been in an election season where my Democratic friends are certain they’re going to have the majority and they end up disappointed. I think they’re going to be disappointed in a week,” Barnes told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News on Wednesday.

A day earlier, pollster Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights told KTAR News that his internal models showed Democrats with a 61% chance of winning the state House. His models also projected a 15-15 tie as the most likely outcome in the Senate.

“You can find a lot of worried Republicans, that’s for sure, because it’s no fun being in the minority. You have no power,” Barnes said.

Consultant believes Republicans still hold upper hand

However, Barnes said history and voter registration numbers still favor the GOP.

“The odds are against the Democrats,” he said. “Every single thing must go right for them to win the majorities.”

Republicans have been in control of the 60-seat state House since 1966. They lost the 30-seat Senate just three times in that span (1974, 1976 and 1990), and there was a tie in 2000.

The races for legislative control have been competitive in recent years. The GOP held one-seat majorities in the House after the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections and won by a single seat in the Senate in 2020 and 2022.

Republicans gained some breathing room in 2024 and worked with a 33-27 majority in the House and a 17-13 advantage in the Senate the past two years.

That means Democrats would have to pick up four seats in the House and three in the Senate to win majorities, and one fewer in each to tie.

What legislative districts will decide control of Arizona House and Senate?

Barnes said four legislative districts are in play in next week’s election.

“There really is north Phoenix and Scottsdale and down in southern Pinal County and parts of Chandler,” Barnes said.

Those locations correspond with LD2, LD4, LD17 and LD13, respectively. ABC15 data analyst Garrett Archer also cited those districts as the keys to legislative control.

Republicans currently hold the four Senate seats and six of the eight House seats in those districts.

“Those four areas have races where there are great candidates on both sides, and the electorate is more balanced, and … those four districts are going to tell us what happens the morning after,” Barnes said.

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