New Arizona poll shows GOP closing in, but Democrats still lead every statewide race

Arizona’s Republican candidates for statewide office have narrowed the gap with Democrats but still trail in most races a week before Election Day.

That is according to a new HighGround Public Affairs poll released Tuesday.

Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs 51.5% to 39.3%, down from a 17-point lead in HighGround’s previous survey. Democrats also lead by double digits for secretary of state and attorney general, while the races for treasurer and superintendent of public instruction have tightened.

“It shows a tightening, which we anticipated out of the gate,” HighGround President and CEO Chuck Coughlin told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Outspoken with Bruce & Gaydos.

GOP base rallies as older voters shift toward Republicans

The poll found Republican voters rallying behind their nominees, with GOP support for each statewide candidate rising from the low 70% range to more than 80%.

Republicans also gained among voters 50 and older, who make up more than half the expected electorate.

Why Republicans are still losing independents and women

But Coughlin, who ran campaigns for former Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, said Republicans’ biggest problems remain independent and female voters.

“They’re still getting slaughtered amongst independents and women,” Coughlin said.

He pointed to President Donald Trump and to voters’ frustration over costs.

“I think Trump is a problem. … He’s vulgar. And I think he offends people,” Coughlin said. “And then you got all the underlying issues that are now chasing the Republican ticket up and down the ticket from gas to food, to affordability, to healthcare insurance, to housing.”

‘The only poll that matters’: Arizona pollster stands by numbers

“You can believe what you want to believe. And maybe I am wrong. But we’ll see on Election Day, because that’s the only poll that matters,” Coughlin said. “If Andy Biggs was up, I’d be giving you those numbers.”

In down-ballot races, Democrat Nick Mansour leads Republican Elijah Norton by about 6 points for treasurer. Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz leads Republican Kimberly Yee by about 4 points for superintendent, within the margin of error.

The HighGround results come as another pollster sees a historic shift possible in the Legislature.

Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Tuesday that his internal model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning the state House and projects the state Senate as a tie.

The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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