New poll shows Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs with 13-point lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs

U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs has a lot of ground to make up if he wants to unseat Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, according to poll results released Thursday.

The Democratic incumbent holds a commanding 48% to 35% lead over her Republican challenger among likely voters with less than three months to go until the Nov. 3 general election, according to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey by Noble Predictive Insights.

“The big takeaway here is simple: Katie Hobbs is in the driver’s seat, but she has not crossed the finish line. Right now, Hobbs leads Andy Biggs by 13 points among likely Arizona voters,” said Mike Noble, CEO and founder of the Phoenix-based research firm.

Two alternative party candidates – the Green Party’s Risa Lombardo and the No Labels Party’s Teri Ann Hourihan – drew a total of 3%. Another 1% of those surveyed selected another candidate not listed, while 12% said they were undecided.

The poll of 1,040 registered Arizona voters was conducted Aug. 10-13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It included 923 likely voters, with a margin of error for that portion at plus or minus 3.2 points.

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has increased her support since May

Noble said Hobbs picked up ground while running unopposed in the Democratic primary as Biggs had to face attacks from his three opponents in the Republican primary on his way to victory in that contest on July 21.

“Up to this point, Hobbs has basically had the general election campaign to herself. She has been on TV, she’s been defining the race, and she appears to have moved the numbers in her direction,” Noble said.

In fact, Hobbs added 5 percentage points among registered voters to her column since May while Biggs lost the same amount, according to Noble Predictive Insights polling.

Hobbs has done a better job consolidating her party behind her than Biggs has, according to the latest findings, which show Hobbs with 86% of the Democratic vote and Biggs with 75% of the Republican vote.

“In a state where elections are decided by tiny margins, that is a problem,” Noble said of Biggs’ situation. “You can’t go … hunting for independents if your own base is still standing in the driveway, wondering whether they want to get in the car.”

The new survey found that Hobbs’ selection of former Republican John Giles as her running mate could have an impact.

“The lieutenant governor piece is interesting but is not driving the race yet. Most voters are not waking up in the morning thinking, ‘I wonder who the lieutenant governor nominee is.’ That said, John Giles does appear to help Hobbs with some independents and more moderate Republicans,” Noble said.

Poll: Voters trust Katie Hobbs more than Andy Biggs on most key issues

The likely voters who participated in the survey were asked about which candidate they trusted most on six key issues, and Hobbs had significant leads over Biggs on five of them: water supply and drought (44% to 26%), housing affordability (44% to 28%), K-12 education (44% to 28%), Arizona’s economy and the cost of living (44% to 31%) and managing the growth and impact of data centers (39% to 30%).

The only issue where the respondents favored Biggs was immigration and border security, and his lead there was just 1 percentage point (38% to 37%).

“But voters are tricky little gremlins,” Noble cautioned. “Just because they trust a candidate on an issue today, doesn’t mean they feel the same way after 75 days of campaign ads, mailers, texts, robocalls and whatever unhinged thing shows up on the YouTube pre-roll.”

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