Rio Grande River at risk of water shortage due to overuse, NAU study finds

PHOENIX — A national water study, in partnership with Northern Arizona University, has found the Rio Grande River is potentially at risk of a water shortage with just two more dry winters.

Ben Ruddell, an NAU professor at the School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Security, provided critical data for the study.

“We found that the Rio Grande is, like many rivers in the world, being overused,” Ruddell told KTAR News 92.3 FM.

Scientists produced their findings by adding the amount of water flowing through the river from snowmelt runoff and water in reservoirs along the Rio Grande River, he said.

Then they used publicly available data from city reports in El Paso, Texas, and Albuquerque, New Mexico, as well as model estimates for smaller cities, to calculate the amount of water being sucked out of the river.

“Most of the water used in the Rio Grande goes to irrigated agriculture,” Ruddell said.

Findings about Rio Grande River

The study also looked at water users’ impact on groundwater depletion. It found 50% overuse that is not being replaced in the river, which could lead to a water shortage for nearby cities and agriculture that rely on the river in the next couple of years.

“There’s just been less and less snow, less and less rain and less and less water coming into the system,” Ruddell said. “It’s now being called a megadrought because we are now four decades into this decline.”

It’s concerning because reservoirs are nearing empty and groundwater is being depleted at an unsustainable rate.

Ruddell said the Rio Grande River is in big trouble if the area doesn’t get some very wet winters in the next two years to replenish the water.

U.S. and Mexican cities that withdraw from the Rio Grande are in compliance with water-use regulations. However, the water allocations were established in a much wetter time.

The study also found there are more water users than there used to be and less water coming in.

Solutions to Rio Grande River’s water issues

Recommendations from the study include rotational fallowing, where farmers are paid to use less water by planting fewer crops, or eventually restricting water use for residential customers. The situation is more severe than that of any river in Arizona, including the Colorado River.

However, Ruddell noted that Arizona has been a world leader in water resource policy and management since the 1980s.

He emphasized that the state does not want to face a scenario where it is just two years away from running out of water in a major city or irrigation district.

“The Rio Grande is probably looking at running out of water in key reservoirs and major water supplies running dry,” Ruddell said.

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