Arizona Legislature election: Can Democrats finally wrest control from Republicans?

PHOENIX – Democrats entered the 2024 election hoping to take control of one or both chambers of the Arizona Legislature and give Gov. Katie Hobbs a better chance to advance her agenda.

Other than the 2001-02 session, when the Senate was split 15-15, Republicans have controlled both chambers for the last three decades. The GOP enjoyed a state government trifecta during most of that time, too, with only one Democrat serving as governor since 1990 until Hobbs took office in January 2023.

The GOP advantage in the Legislature was as small as it could be – 16-14 in the 30-member Senate and 31-29 in the 60-member House – during Hobbs’ first two years in office, when she vetoed a record number of bills.

How is the race for the Arizona Legislature going?

Two days after Election Day 2024, it was still uncertain which party would come out on top in the state Senate and House.

However, Republicans were in position to win a majority of seats in each chamber as of Thursday morning, according to the Arizona Secretary of State results page.

In fact, Steven Slugocki, a former chair of the Maricopa County Democratic Party, wasn’t feeling optimistic about his side gaining any ground.

“I know we still do have a lot of ballots to go, but we’re going to fall a little bit short on that,” Slugocki told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Arizona’s Morning News on Thursday morning. “And that’s unfortunate, because that was a major goal that we thought we’d be able to accomplish this cycle.”

Arizona Senate control down to a handful of unsettled races

In the Senate, the GOP was leading in 16 of the 30 races as of Thursday morning. Twenty-five of the contests had results that were unlikely to change, with Republicans ahead in 14 and Democrats in control of 11.

In addition, GOP candidates were leading in two of the five Senate races where the margin was under 3 percentage points: District 2 and 4. Democrats, meanwhile, were clinging to narrow leads in Districts 9, 17 and 23.

Democrats would have to win all five of those tight races to take control of the Senate and four to create a 15-15 tie. Republicans will maintain their hold on the chamber in any other scenario.

Arizona House picture remains fuzzy

The picture is much more complicated over in the House, where up to two candidates from each party are battling over two seats per district.

Republicans entered Thursday with the advantage in 32 of the 60 races. However, several contests were particularly unsettled, with razor-close margins.

For Districts 4, 9 and 13, the distance between first and fourth place was under 3 points in each race. Those six seats were split 3-3 as of Thursday morning, but a shift of a few hundred votes here and there could change that balance.

In addition, the top two spots in District 2 were split, but the third-place Republican was only 1.1 points behind the first-place Democrat.

Slugocki said he thinks the Democrats had strong candidates in the 2024 election but they needed to do a better job of getting their message out.

“I think we didn’t do that this cycle enough to get people to vote for our candidates, unfortunately, and our message just got drowned out,” he said.

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