With immigration and abortion on Arizona’s ballot, Republicans are betting on momentum

Voters will decide ballot measures on abortion and immigration in Arizona, a key battleground state where Republicans are looking to capitalize on concerns about illegal border crossings to counter an expected increase in turnout by people determined to restore and protect abortion rights.

And while the abortion initiative is bolstered by a citizen-led campaign flush with cash, the GOP lawmakers who added a measure to empower state law enforcers to crack down on people who are in Arizona illegally say it already has so much momentum that they don’t plan to raise money or spend much time selling it.

Abortion has many people fired up since an 1864 law banning nearly all abortions was revived and then quickly repealed this year. But immigration consistently ranks as a top concern in this western swing state, where anti-immigration legislation has long fueled national debates over illegal crossings from Mexico.

“Voters will approve this more to send a message that something, anything, needs to be done,” said Barrett Marson, a Phoenix-based Republican strategist. “It lacks financial backing because people know it’s going to pass and that it has little impact on curbing illegal immigration into Arizona.”

Arizona state House Speaker Ben Toma voted with fellow Republicans in June to put the measure on the ballot. He called it common sense and just a small part of “what actually needs to happen to secure the border.”

Frustration over illegal immigration persists despite moves by the Biden-Harris administration this year to shut down what had been an unprecedented surge in new arrivals. Democrats blame former President Donald Trump for making it a top campaign issue by persuading allies in Congress to torpedo bipartisan legislation that could have bolstered the federal response.

Republican lawmakers across the country this year have pushed tougher immigration policies, with their majorities in Texas, Iowa and Oklahoma passing laws to conduct immigration enforcement at the state level. But in each of those states, federal courts blocked their efforts to enforce the laws.

Democratic strategist DJ Quinlan said that despite universal concerns about the border, plenty of voters and stakeholders oppose this particular measure, which would make it a state crime for noncitizens to illegally cross from Mexico into Arizona outside authorized ports of entry. The crime would enable local police to arrest violators and state judges to order deportations, which are roles historically left to the federal government.

“When you talk to a lot of people in law enforcement or in the business community or that deal with these sorts of issues on a day-to-day basis, this referendum is not the answer,” Quinlan said.

The measure also would require state agencies that administer federal, state or local benefit programs to use a federal database to verify that no ineligible noncitizens get the benefits. And it would shield law enforcement from civil lawsuits alleging racial profiling of Latinos or other minorities.

Some of its provisions aren’t directly related to illegal immigration, including making selling fentanyl that leads to a person’s death a felony punishable by up to 10 years in prison. Latino groups argued this violates a state constitutional requirement that legislative proposals cover a single subject. The Arizona Supreme Court disagreed, clearing to a path for voters to decide.

Kent Jenson, a 68-year-old retiree, said he opposes illegal immigration and detests drug use, so he plans to vote for the immigration measure and against the abortion initiative. “It’s terrible what fentanyl has done to families,” Jenson said.

Opponents argue the immigration legislation would harm Arizona’s reputation and economy even more than a so-called “show me your papers” law approved by lawmakers in 2010 that was partially stuck down by the U.S. Supreme Court two years later.

The cost also worries some mayors, county officials and law enforcement leaders who warn that diverting resources to border security could deprive their day-to-day operations and essential public services.

An Associated Press review of state campaign finance records found no contributions specifically supporting Proposition 314, nor any donations explicitly against it.

Toma said Republicans are spending their time, money and energy on competitive races and other statewide ballot measures, with 13 in all. At stake is not only control of the U.S. Senate and White House, but also the state Legislature. Republicans have a one-seat majority in each chamber and Democrats hope to regain power for the first time in decades.

“People are going to focus, and rightly so, on the issues that actually need help,” Toma said.

Citizen-led Proposition 139, which would enshrine abortion access in the state’s constitution, has generated millions of dollars in donations and reached the ballot with more than a half-million signatures. Arizona is one of 10 states where voters will consider abortion protections.

“It is a basic human right that all women need to have autonomy over their own bodies,” said Erin Dean, 34, a voter who used to be registered as a Republican but now backs Democrats.

The political action committee Arizona for Abortion Access raised nearly $23 million as of late July, campaign finance records show. A PAC opposing the measure, It Goes Too Far, had raised nearly $900,000.

Republican and Democratic strategists alike say the abortion measure could draw voters who might not otherwise be interested in casting a ballot.

Marson, the GOP strategist, expects it to boost turnout with young and first-time voters. The same can’t be said for the immigration measure, which he predicts will pass anyway.

“Not many teenagers are itching to vote on an illegal immigration issue even if a wide swath of people support the measure,” Marson said.

Ballot measures on immigration have been popular in Arizona before.

In 2004, voters made Arizona the only state to require proof of citizenship status to register to vote. A measure banning in-state tuition for noncitizens was passed in 2006, but key parts were overturned in 2022 when Arizonans voted to make students — regardless of immigration status — eligible for state financial aid. ___

Gabriel Sandoval is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

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