Here’s how Hobbs-Lake race for Arizona governor echoes 2016 presidential contest

PHOENIX – A Valley pollster says the way the 2022 race for governor in Arizona is starting reminds him of a previous matchup between a fiery media personality and an established politician.

From a polling perspective, the early stage of the Kari Lake-Katie Hobbs contest echoes the 2016 Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton presidential race, Mike Noble, chief researcher for OH Predictive Insights, told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s The Mike Broomhead Show on Thursday.

“The same thing here is that she’s starting in a behind position,” Noble said, comparing Lake with Trump.

It remains to be seen if Lake can come out on top at the Nov. 8 general election as Trump did in 2016.

Noble said his firm hasn’t done any polling on the Arizona governor’s race since Lake won the Republican nomination and Hobbs was the overwhelming choice for Democrats in the Aug. 2 primary.

But in a survey of hypothetical matchups done about a month ago, Hobbs, Arizona’s current secretary of state and a former state lawmaker, led Lake, a longtime local news anchor before running for governor, by 6 percentage points.

“What does this very much remind you of?” Noble said. “It’s where Trump was against Hillary Clinton when he came out of that contentious primary.”

The OH Predictive Insights poll of hypothetical matchups showed Karrin Taylor Robson, whom Lake beat by 5 points in the Republican primary, with a 1-point lead over Hobbs. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean GOP voters picked the weaker candidate.

Noble said it’s way too early to count out Lake, who is endorsed by Trump and whose campaign style evokes the former president.

“Can she get Republicans to unite and can she get those independents, those moderates in the middle? To chip away at those folks is really going to be the big question, or challenge, for Lake,” he said.

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