Katie Hobbs still dominating among Democrats in race for Arizona governor, poll finds

PHOENIX – Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs continues to hold a commanding lead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to new polling, but a significant number of voters remain undecided.

Hobbs was the top choice of 43% of the likely Democratic voters surveyed by OH Predictive Insights earlier this month and released Tuesday. Hobbs’ only remaining competitor, former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez, was at 9%.

The poll was conducted May 9-16, before former state lawmaker Aaron Lieberman bowed out of the race. Lieberman, who withdrew Friday because he didn’t see “a realistic path forward in this race,” fared only slightly worse than Lopez at 8%.

However, with just over three months to go before the Aug. 2 primary, 40% of Arizona Democrats remained unsure about the governor race.

“With no significant movement in months and the primary election just a couple months away, the two in five undecided voters will certainly decide this race’s outcome,” said Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief of research.

The race hasn’t shifted in a meaningful way since the Phoenix-based research firm conducted its last Democratic gubernatorial primary poll in January, when Hobbs had 46%, Lopez 9% and Lieberman 5%, with 39% unsure.

Having an apparently safe lead among Democrats means Hobbs can save her resources for the general election, where she’ll face whoever emerges from what’s become a three-way Republican race among Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson and Matt Salmon.

“Democrats in Arizona seem to have avoided a bruising and contentious primary thus far — a positive sign in an otherwise grim national environment for the party,” Noble said.

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