Daydreams of normality nixed by a new nightmare

A new worst-case scientific scenario says we might need to socially distance until the end of NEXT YEAR?!

Are you kidding?

Even two more weeks of staying home – and keeping businesses shut down – will feel like forever.

I’ll fill you in on the scary scenario experts, but first, let’s talk about what coming out of our coronavirus cocoons will look like – because that’s where the hope lies. 

Gov. Doug Ducey told KTAR News 92.3 FM’s Gaydos and Chad that lifting restrictions in Arizona will be more like loosening a screw than flipping a light switch. But just knowing it’s coming – relatively soon – leads to daydreams of normal life. 

That’s completely unlike a potential scenario that Harvard researchers just published in the journal Science.

Because I don’t want to be responsible for anybody’s heart attack, I’ll tell you up front that these scientists aren’t talking about CONSTANT social distancing through the end of next year – and they say there are ways we can avoid having to social distance much at all for much longer.

These scientists created computer models on how the pandemic could play out. One of those models led them to suggest that, “Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

And they say we’ll need widespread testing even after we appear to be out of the woods because we will need to continue monitoring if infections are going back up and restrictions need to be reinstated. 

Of course, as I already pointed out here, we need widespread testing to even be able to determine when we (and whom) can get back to work.

They also say that aggressive “contact tracing” and quarantining of the sick, the exposed and the particularly susceptible will lessen the need for all the rest of us to socially distance. 

But here’s where we can really insert a smile emoji in place of the poop emoji: If we do have to practice some form of social distancing for a year-and-a-half more, intermittent distancing will not only be our preferred method – it’s also the preferred method of these Harvard researchers. 

While not as good as normal life, intermittent distancing is far better for our mental health than constant lockdowns – and these scientists say that the intermittent approach is also better for public health. Lockdowns can be “so effective [in stopping infection spread] that virtually no population immunity is built,” and they say a lack of “herd immunity” can lead to an infection peak that can be as bad as letting the virus spread uncontrolled. 

So, we all need to sit tight for a little while longer, let the scientists do their thing and insist that our elected leaders get massive testing in place. 

Or we may be sitting tight for a loooong time.  

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