Trump immigration policies likely to have impact on Arizona economy, for better or worse

Editor’s Note: This is the second of a three-part special series called “Immigration in Arizona Today” that dives into the latest border issues affecting the state. Read part one here.

PHOENIX — Whether immigration, particularly illegal immigration, is a net positive or negative for the U.S. and Arizona economies is a hotly debated issue. Some believe undocumented migrants put a strain on the country’s financial and social institutions, while others say they fill critical labor roles that might otherwise go unfilled.

The Department of Homeland Security reported that 7,300 people were deported during President Donald Trump’s first week in office. As the administration looks to maintain momentum, there are reports that immigration officials have been given a quota to arrest 1,200 to 1,500 people per day.

At a protest at the Arizona State Capitol last week, small business owners discussed the impact they have already felt due to the new immigration policies. One speaker, Tanairí Ochoa-Martínez, said she has worked with at least 1,000 Latino business owners, many of whom have suffered financially.

“We are reliving trauma with our generation of parents who have been here over 20, 30 years awaiting legal status, for them to only go back to the necessities of going to work, school or even stop sending their kids to school … it needs to stop today. It needs to stop right here,” Ochoa-Martínez said.

“The restaurants are slowing down; people are sheltering in place. We’re having a repeat of 2009 2010, and we cannot let this happen.”

Impact of immigration policies not certain yet

Arizona Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Danny Seiden isn’t convinced.

He told KTAR News 92.3 FM that while it is too early to know all the impacts of the new policies, it would be almost impossible to say they are responsible for a slowdown in business revenue.

“If they’re saying there’s a decrease in economic activity, that must mean they think that people who are here illegally aren’t going out and spending money as much anymore, and that’s so tough to measure that we haven’t been able to confirm or deny it,” Seiden said.

He pointed to factors such as inflation, supply shortages and tariff speculation as other issues that could be affecting business revenue. Seiden also pushed back against the idea that deporting large numbers of immigrants who are in the country illegally would harm the U.S. economy.

“The one that grinds my gears is that somehow our businesses need this labor, or they’re using it now and they’re afraid it’s going to go away. I’ve never heard that argument once,” he said.

All businesses associated with the Arizona Chamber of Commerce use E-Verify, a system that confirms the legal status of employees. Still, Seiden acknowledged that these policies could negatively impact Arizona’s economy in specific ways.

“If it leads to fewer legal crossings and fewer people willing to come across and assist in the produce market that we have in southern Arizona, and it impacts cross-border trade and commerce, those are areas where we and Texas are going to disproportionately suffer,” Seiden said.

“I would say California too, because we’re three large border-crossing states.”

Impact being felt in Mexico

That has already played a role south of the border.

Keith Allen, director of sales and marketing at Encantame Resorts in Rocky Point, said the hotel has seen a drop in occupancy rates compared to previous years.

“We have so many people who think the border may be closed,” Allen said. “If it’s not closed, they think they’re going to be harassed when they cross into Mexico, or there’s going to be problems when they leave and so it’s definitely having an impact.”

Seiden said only time will tell the true impact of the immigration policies but stressed how legal immigration helps the economy.

“What we all want is a robust legal immigration system. We want a robust H-1B1 program where we can close the gaps in our workforce that we’re not able to produce for right now here in America,” he said.

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