New poll: Andy Biggs has big lead in GOP primary for Arizona governor but trails Katie Hobbs

With the start of early voting about a month away, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs is pulling away in the race to be the Republican nominee for Arizona governor, according to new polling.

However, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs remains on top in potential general election matchups, according to findings released Monday by Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights.

Biggs’ GOP primary advantage over fellow U.S. Rep. David Schweikert ballooned to 30 percentage points, 48% to 18%; 34% of voters were undecided.

Biggs picked up ground while Schweikert stalled since February polling showed Biggs leading 40% to 19%.

“Biggs has done what a strong primary candidate needs to do — consolidate the field,” Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, said in a press release. “Going from 40% to 48% is a meaningful jump, and now the question is whether he can close it out.”

The new survey was conducted May 5-7. The Republican primary poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.01%.

What does Arizona governor’s race poll say about general election?

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Hobbs led Biggs 41% to 37%. Arizona Independent Party hopeful Hugh Lytle was included in Noble Predictive Insights polling for the first time and drew 5%, while 16% of voters remained undecided.

In a separate potential matchup, Hobbs led Schweikert 42% to 35%, with Lytle at 6% and the same 16% undecided.

The distance between Hobbs and either Republican was outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1% for the general election poll.

In its February polling, Noble Predictive Insights found Hobbs with a 42% to 37% lead over Biggs and a 44% to 35% advantage over Schweikert.

The results suggest the Arizona governor’s race remains competitive, with a sizable share of voters still undecided, especially women, younger voters and independents.

How much do voters like Arizona gubernatorial candidates?

Hobbs also had a stronger overall image than the Republican candidates tested in the survey. She posted a 48% favorable rating and 39% unfavorable rating, putting her net favorability at plus-9.

Biggs was viewed favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 29% (plus-5), though 37% of voters said they had no opinion or had never heard of him. Schweikert came in at 29% favorable and 27% unfavorable (plus-2).

Regionally, Hobbs ran strongest in Pima County, while Republicans performed better in rural areas. In Maricopa County, the state’s largest voting center, Hobbs held a more modest edge in both tested matchups.

New polling shows President Donald Trump influence

Among Republican primary voters, 59% said an endorsement by President Donald Trump’s would make them more likely to support a candidate, while 14% said it would make them less likely.

In addition, 81% of Trump supporters told pollsters that an endorsement would make them more likely to back that candidate.

Trump has endorsed Biggs in the Arizona governor’s race.

Early voting for the July 21 primary election starts June 24.

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