Expert: Arizona presidential election turnout could hinge on immigration … or not

PHOENIX — Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made immigration a top-tier election issue but Valley political expert Stan Barnes said the jury is still out on how the topic will play at the polls next year.

“The issue clouds Arizona’s position nationally,” the conservative analyst said, “because illegal immigration impacts Arizona differently and more loudly than other states. One can imagine than if it remains a top-tier issue, it could change the turnout and outcome in Arizona.”

When Trump spoke at a Phoenix rally in July, he made a point of talking up immigration.

“If it remains a hot button issue, it will it bring out those from the center left that are partial to making laws softer in that regard,” Barnes said, “or will it bring out those from the center right that are partial to being tougher on the issue.

“Either way, the voter turnout will be fluid and harder to predict in Arizona because of that issue.”

Barnes said every presidential election swirls around a variety of issues but it always comes back to the economy.

“I believe this (2016 presidential race) will do that as well. The economy will dominate because that’s what people at their baseline really care about.”

Barnes said every four years the Democrats look to Arizona and wonder about winning the state.

It’s no small task. Bill Clinton carried Arizona in his 1996 re-election. Before that, Harry Truman achieved the feat in 1948.

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